Today the MPC decision on interest rates. Experts agree like never before

A two-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) began on Tuesday. Today we will learn the decision of the body regarding the level of interest rates. During the last three meetings, the Monetary Policy Council decided to keep interest rates unchanged, which means that from October the main, reference interest rate is 5.75%.

The Monetary Policy Council won’t change interest rates again?

Experts expect a similar decision to be made today. – The Monetary Policy Council will not change interest rates. We do not think that the recent weak economic data in the fourth quarter will be factors that will change anything in the function of the Council’s reaction – Bank Pekao economist Kamil Łuczkowski told the Polish Press Agency, quoted by tvn24.pl.

Also, according to PKO BP economists, the second meeting of the Monetary Policy Council this year will “most likely result” in maintaining interest rates at the current level.

– We expect that the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) will leave the interest rates of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) unchanged (main rate still 5.75%), despite low GDP growth in 4Q23 and weakness in consumer demand at the end of 2023, which indicate continued disinflation – this is the opinion of ING Bank Śląski analysts.

The bank’s economists remind that during his last speech, the president of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) and the chairman of the Monetary Policy Council, Adam Glapiński, “quite clearly suggested that no changes in monetary policy parameters should be expected until March.”

– The Council is aware that a further rapid decline in inflation in 1Q24 will largely be a consequence of a very high reference base and the extension of protective measures (zero VAT on food, ‘freezing’ of energy prices in 1H24) – emphasize economists from ING Bank Śląski.

Let us recall that inflation in December 2023 was 6.2%, compared to 6.6%. in November. Preliminary data in this regard for January will be released on February 15, while the final statistics will be presented in March, after changes to the inflation basket.