We know what about interest rates. There is a decision of the Monetary Policy Council

We know what about interest rates.  There is a decision of the Monetary Policy Council

The Monetary Policy Council has concluded its two-day decision-making meeting. We already know what will happen next with the level of interest rates.

The two-day decision-making meeting of the Monetary Policy Council has ended. We learned about the most important findings that affect, among others: on the amount of loan installments and deposit interest rates.

The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged.

Below we provide information about the Monetary Policy Council’s decisions.

A meeting of the Monetary Policy Council was held on December 5-6, 2023.

The Council set the NBP interest rates at the following levels:

  • reference rate 5.75% per annum

  • lombard rate 6.25% per annum

  • deposit rate 5.25% per annum

  • rediscount rate of bills of exchange 5.80% per annum

  • bill of exchange discount rate 5.85% per annum

The Monetary Policy Council lowers interest rates

In September – for the first time in over three years – the Council decided to reduce rates. The decision to cut itself was not a surprise, but probably no one expected cuts of as much as 75 basis points. A month later, there was another reduction in interest rates, this time by 25 basis points. This time, most economists were counting on a slightly bolder step and a cut of 50 basis points.

The decision from a month ago was also a bit of a surprise, when the Monetary Policy Council decided to keep interest rates at the current level, while the market expected another cut of 25 basis points. – The only sensible decision – this is how economist Marek Zuber commented on the MPC move in an interview with Wprost.pl.

The expert emphasized in an interview with our editorial office that he noticed the political context in the earlier decisions of the Monetary Policy Council to reduce interest rates. – Now the MPC is returning to the substantive assessment of the situation – said Zuber.

What decision on interest rates will the Monetary Policy Council announce tomorrow? The statement of the President of the National Central Bank (NBP) and the head of the Council, Adam Glapiński, shows that there is no reason to count on a reduction for now. – After the recent reductions, the space for possible further reductions in interest rates has decreased significantly. Secondly, uncertainty regarding the pace of disinflation in the following quarters has recently increased significantly, Glapiński said.

Discounts only in spring?

According to PKO BP analysts, a breakthrough will only be possible in the spring of next year. – In our opinion, we will have a few quiet months in monetary policy, and the discussion about possible changes in rates may return in March, when the prospects for fiscal policy, at least in the short term, and the new NBP projection for GDP and inflation will be known, PKO BP economists predict.

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