The sale of flats is on fire, but a potential big problem is already visible

After July 3, people who meet the criteria for applying for a government subsidy began to apply for housing loans. In the “Safe 2 percent loan” program. a loan will be available to a person up to 45 years of age who does not have and has never had an apartment, a house or a cooperative right to a flat or a house before.

“Safe 2% credit”. encourages you to buy an apartment

In the case of a marriage, the condition must be met by both people, because the subsidized loan is not applied for separately by the spouses, but by the household, and the definition created for the purposes of this act emphasizes that both spouses are the household. Therefore, if one of the partners bought a flat before the wedding, even if it belonged to his personal property, this excludes the couple from participating in the program.

At the end of last week, Minister Waldemar Buda, who is responsible for the implementation of the program, said about 4,000. people who have applied so far.

Already in June, the number of loan applications increased

In June 2023, a total of 22.01 thousand applied for a housing loan. potential borrowers compared to 19.51 thous. a year earlier – it is an increase of 12.8 percent. Compared to May 2023, the number of people applying for a housing loan has decreased by 1.6 percent.

The average value of a housing loan applied for in June this year amounted to PLN 382.06 thousand. PLN and was higher by 12.1 percent. in relation to the value from June 2022. Compared to May 2023, it was higher by 0.7 percent.

– The June reading of the BIK Index of Demand for Housing Loans shot up and shows that in June this year. loan applications were submitted for the value of 26.5 percent. higher than the year before. However, when interpreting this information, it should be remembered that from May 2021 until August 2022, when we recorded the lowest reading of the Index value and it was in a strong downward trend, it currently creates and until August this year. low base for comparisons from 2022. It is the statistical effect of the low base from June 2022 that is partly responsible for such a high June reading of BIK Index – PKM. And as I wrote a month ago, another positive reading of the Index after May is a symptom of a lasting improvement in sentiment towards housing loans – says Dr. Waldemar Rogowski, the main analyst of the BIK Group, adds that it is still worth tracking the behavior of the two components of the Index, i.e. the number of people applying for a housing loan and the average amount of the loan applied for.

real estate. The problem is the small number of apartments being built

Are we facing a significant rebound in the real estate market? The problem is that the advertisements show small, but nevertheless common, increases in the prices of flats that may be included in the subsidy program – i.e. flats priced up to PLN 700,000 or PLN 800,000. zloty. The first number reflects the maximum property value that a single person can buy, and the higher level is intended for couples and single parents with children.

The worst scenario is the one in which flats will increase to such an extent that they will not be available to people who were planning to apply for a subsidized loan a few weeks ago. Such a scenario would be prevented by an increase in the number of available flats, i.e. an increase in supply. However, the opposite is happening.

The increase in the availability of flats will not happen in a year or two, because the number of flats built has been falling for two years, especially in large cities. This is mainly due to the lack of land for investments and the increase in the prices of building materials. In 2021, when the sale of apartments visibly decreased, developers began to limit construction plans for fear that there would be no buyers.

In recent months, developers have limited the number of commenced residential investments. In February 2023 alone, the number of flats for which building permits were issued or a construction project was submitted fell by 36%. y/y to 16,186 – although it should be noted that it increased by 6.6 percent. Let’s go further: in the first four months of 2023, the number of flats completed was 3.1 percent higher than in the first four months of 2023. higher than a year ago, but in the same period construction started by 27.7 percent. fewer apartments. In turn, there were 32 percent more building permits or notifications. less.