Poland is depopulating. The Central Statistical Office presents a dramatic scenario

According to the forecasts of the Central Statistical Office, the population of Poland will decrease to 30.4 million people by 2060 (in alternative scenarios to 26.7 million in the low and 34.8 million in the high). “The aging process of Poland’s population will continue, which means an increase in the percentage of people aged 65 and over and a significant decrease in the number of children and youth (0-17 years). Only in the high scenario is it expected that the number of people under 18 will remain at a level similar to 2022. – we read in the report.

Society is aging

The working-age population will shrink. In extreme scenarios (low and high), it is estimated that this number in 2060 will be 13.3 and 16.6 million, respectively, which compared to 22.2 million in 2022 means a decrease by 25%. in the high scenario and by as much as 40 percent in low.

In 2022, there were 70 people of non-working age (0-17, 60+/65+) per 100 people of working age (women 18-59, men 18-64). In 2060, there will be 105 people (according to the main scenario).

More migrants

“Except in the low-case scenario, immigration is expected to increase significantly. In the medium and high scenarios, Poland will be an immigration country throughout the forecast horizon, i.e. in the years 2023-2060, a positive migration balance will be maintained.

A significant decrease in the number of births is projected (apart from the high scenario), which will be associated primarily with a decrease in the number of women at the procreative age. It is expected that between 2022 and 2060 their number will decrease from 8.7 to 6.3 million in the high scenario and to 4.8 million in the low scenario.