Inflation in Poland. Over 80 percent farms expect price increases
Future Inflation Index (WPI), forecasting the direction of changes in prices of consumer goods and services in January this year several months in advance. dropped by 0.5 points compared to December quotations – informed the Bureau of Investments and Economic Cycles (BIEC). Approximately 82% expect a price increase. subjects
– The end of last year was characterized by a slowdown in the indicator’s decline and its oscillation around similar values. This was mainly due to the renewed inflation expectations of consumers and producers. Currently, these expectations have stabilized, and the exchange rate of the Polish zloty against the dollar and euro as well as the prices of basic raw materials on world markets favor a reduction in the price growth rate in the near future – we read in the BIEC press release.
Inflation in Poland. Companies’ expectations
Among the factors unfavorable for a further decline in inflation, the institution indicates further strong stimulation of consumer demand and an increase in the costs of running a business, especially labor costs.
BIEC points out that the inflation expectations of representatives of manufacturing enterprises remained at a level similar to last month’s results. Currently, the advantage of the percentage of companies planning to increase the prices of their products in the near future over the percentage of companies planning reductions does not exceed 13%. The advantage of this scale has been maintained for three months and is significantly higher than in the summer months of last year. The tendency to increase prices is most strongly expressed by producers of transport equipment, the pharmaceutical and clothing industries, and in the industry providing repair, maintenance and installation services for machines.
– The intentions to raise prices in the latter industry are particularly disturbing. Most likely, they result from the increased demand for these categories of services, which in turn is a consequence of a significant degree of wear and tear of the machinery currently owned by companies and many years of investment arrears in technological equipment of companies – writes BIEC.
Households’ inflation expectations
In turn, the inflation expectations of household representatives decreased slightly compared to last month (a decrease of less than 1 percentage point). Approximately 82% expect a price increase. subjects. However, there was a slight decrease in those who expect that prices will grow at the current pace in the near future in favor of the group of respondents who believe that they will grow slower than before.
Let us recall that preliminary data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS) show that inflation in December amounted to 6.1%, compared to 6.5%. in November. During Wednesday’s press conference, the president of the National Bank of Poland (NBP), Adam Glapiński, emphasized that in March we can expect a drop to approximately 3%, i.e. around the inflation target.
– We expect a significant drop in inflation. In the first quarter it may be even faster than we expected. This means that in the near future it may fall to around 3 percent, i.e. the NBP target of 2.5 percent. In March we will be at or very close to the inflation target. It’s completely amazing – said the head of the central bank.
Glapiński noted, however, that in the second half of the year inflation may rebound and even double.
