There is a clear reflection in the developers’ results. “Safe credit” heralds the end of the crisis?

There is a clear reflection in the developers' results.  "Safe credit" heralds the end of the crisis?

Just a few weeks before the inauguration of the “Safe Credit 2%” program there was an increased interest in buying real estate. The collapse of the housing market is a thing of the past, which is reflected in the data published by developers listed on the stock exchange.

At the end of each quarter, most listed developers publish sales statistics. The sales dynamics show that it is getting better quarter after quarter in terms of the number of apartments sold, informs the Bankier website, which discusses aggregate statistics.

real estate. Stock market developers are selling more and more

The completed second quarter of 2023 was already better for almost all the largest developers than the one from a year ago, when sales fell by 50-60%. The increase in sales volumes of Marvipol was the best year-on-year (+244%), and by nearly 100% The result was improved by Lokum. Only Dekpol was below the line, but it improved for the entire first half of the year. In total, the volume of the analyzed companies increased by 38%.

In the previous quarter, nominally the largest number of apartments were sold by Dom Development (931), which, however, was the only one that did not record a two-digit sales dynamics quarter-on-quarter. Here, the leader was Atal, which sold 740 of them, i.e. 84 percent more than in the previous year. more than in the first three months of the year. In total, on a quarter-on-quarter basis, sales jumped 24 percent.

After the first half of the year, Marvipol and Lokum recorded sales increases of more than 100%. compared to the first half of 2022. Sales also started in Inpro (+78%), and the largest developers, such as Develia and Dom Development, are also in double-digit plus.

Already in June, the number of loan applications increased

Developers owe the increase in the number of flats sold to i.a. the “Safe 2 percent loan” program, which started on July 3. A loan with co-financing will be available to a person up to 45 years of age who does not have and has never had an apartment, house or a cooperative right to a flat or a house.

In June 2023, a total of 22.01 thousand applied for a housing loan. potential borrowers compared to 19.51 thous. a year earlier – it is an increase of 12.8 percent. Compared to May 2023, the number of people applying for a housing loan has decreased by 1.6 percent.

The average value of a housing loan applied for in June this year amounted to PLN 382.06 thousand. PLN and was higher by 12.1 percent. in relation to the value from June 2022. Compared to May 2023, it was higher by 0.7 percent.

– The June reading of the BIK Index of Demand for Housing Loans shot up and shows that in June this year. loan applications were submitted for the value of 26.5 percent. higher than the year before. However, when interpreting this information, it should be remembered that from May 2021 until August 2022, when we recorded the lowest reading of the Index value and it was in a strong downward trend, it currently creates and until August this year. low base for comparisons from 2022. It is the statistical effect of the low base from June 2022 that is partly responsible for such a high June reading of BIK Index – PKM. And as I wrote a month ago, another positive reading of the Index after May is a symptom of a lasting improvement in sentiment towards housing loans says Dr. Waldemar Rogowski, the main analyst of the BIK Group, adds that it is still worth tracking the behavior of the two components of the Index, i.e. the number of people applying for a housing loan and the average amount of the loan applied for.

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