The result will be weighed until the last minute. The latest poll before the elections
Two and a half weeks before the parliamentary elections, the difference between PiS and KO is 8 points. percent – according to the latest IBRiS survey for Onet. When it comes to the division of mandates and governance prospects, a stalemate emerges from the study.
According to the latest IBRiS poll, conducted on Wednesday, September 27, if the parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, Law and Justice and its coalition partners would win them. The ruling party could count on 35.1 percent. support. This means that its ratings have not changed compared to the previous survey by the same studio on September 20.
Elections 2023. Slight increases in support for the opposition
Second place would go to the Civic Coalition. 27% of people declare their willingness to vote for her. respondents. The ratings of the alliance of the Civic Platform, Nowoczesna, Inicjatywa Polska and the Greens increased by 0.9 points. percent compared to the previous study.
The poll podium is closed by Trzecia Droga with support at the level of 10.4%. The Coalition of the Polish People’s Party and Poland 2050 gained 1.2 percentage points during the week. In turn, 10.1% of people declare their willingness to vote for the Left. respondents, i.e. by 1 point. percent more than before.
The number of undecided people is decreasing
Confederation would also get into the Sejm, currently supported by 9.5 percent. subjects. However, the ratings of Menzenists, nationalists and Grzegorz Braun’s environment have decreased slightly over the last seven days – by 0.4 points. percent Nonpartisan Local Government (2%) and Polska jest Jedno (0.3%) were below the electoral threshold.
In turn, the answer “I don’t know/it’s hard to say” was chosen by 5.6 percent. respondents. The number of undecided people decreased by 3.5 points compared to the previous survey. percent
Onet’s calculations show that with such a distribution of support, PiS would have 195 seats in the new Sejm, KO – 150 seats, Trzecia Droga – 41 seats, Left – 38 seats, and Confederation – 35 seats. In addition, one seat will go to the German minority.
It’s going to be a stalemate
This means that PiS was unable to govern independently and would not have the minimum majority, i.e. 231 sabers, even if it reached an agreement with the Confederation. The opposition, i.e. KO, Third Road and Left, which would have 229 seats, would also not obtain a majority.
Commenting on the survey results, Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk from the University of Warsaw said in an interview with Onet that when it comes to PiS, “there is a mythical ceiling of support”, KO “is still at its average level”, and Trzecia Droga is “stably on the verge of survival”.
