The heatwave will increase the demand for air conditioning. Poland in the lead

British scientists in “Nature Sustainabilit” point out that when the increase in the average global temperature exceeds 1.5 degrees C and reaches 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, many countries will feel the increase in demand for cooling systems. African countries are in the worst situation: Central African Republic, Burkina Faso, Mali, Sudan, Nigeria and Congo.

The need for air conditioning. Poland in 21st place

Researchers have also compiled a list of 50 countries that will increase the need for cooling systems because historically they are not prepared for high temperatures at all. At the top are Ireland, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. How does Poland rank in the ranking? Turns out we’re in 21st place.

Using a global model of general atmospheric circulation and historical climate data from 2006 to 2016, researchers at the University of Oxford estimated the annual variation of Cooling Degree Days (CDD). It is an indicator that allows you to study the scale of warming and determine the related cooling demand. Scientists determine the value of the CDD for different areas by comparing the average air temperatures prevailing there on a particular day with the so-called. standard temperature.

– We mapped the annual CDDs and got a list of countries that will be most affected by warming from 1.5 degrees Celsius to 2.0 degrees Celsius. We divided them into those that will be affected by warming in an absolute way – that is, people living in their areas will feel it seriously; and those whose demand for the implementation of cooling systems will increase – that is, they will face a big adaptation challenge, because they are not traditionally prepared for rising temperatures – scientists wrote.

Many experts believe that the Paris Agreement of 2015, which was intended to mobilize economies to work on limiting the increase in the average global air temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius, is no longer achievable. Rising temperatures are already driving cooling demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that by 2050 the energy needed for cooling could equal the total electricity used in 2016 by the US, European Union and Japan.

Climate change cost us PLN 70 billion

Meanwhile, according to the latest report of the Polish Insurance Association, over the last 40 years, losses incurred as a result of climate change in Poland have been estimated at EUR 16 billion (about PLN 70 billion). We may incur greater losses in the coming decades if the pessimistic forecasts assuming a decline in GDP by more than 10% come true. due to climate change.