Law and Justice is leading in the latest poll, but it cannot count on governing on its own. The simulation of converting the survey results into seats shows that the Confederation will be the one to deal the cards.
Law and Justice leads in the latest poll conducted by IBRIS for “Rzeczpospolita”. 33.4% of people plan to vote for Jarosław Kaczyński’s party. respondents (no changes compared to the July survey).
The Civic Coalition recorded a slight increase in support. Currently 27.2 percent respondents declare that they will vote for the mentioned political environment (an increase of 1 percentage point). The last place on the podium was taken by Konfederacja with a result of 12.4%. (in July – 12.7%).
PiS is leading, but cannot count on an independent majority. The latest survey
The next positions were taken by Trzecia Droga – 10%. (decrease by 0.8 percentage points) and the Left – 9.3 percent. (decrease by 1.4 percentage points). From 4.2 percent up to 7.7 percent the percentage of undecided people increased.
“Rzeczpospolita” also presented a simulation of the conversion of the survey results into the distribution of seats. The conclusion is simple: Law and Justice would not be able to govern on its own, winning 190-195 seats, and the opposition 209-215. There are many indications that the cards after the elections may be distributed by the Confederation, which will win approximately 50-55 seats.
– When the holidays are over, a month before the elections, people who have not been motivated so far will say “there is no way, you have to vote.” That’s why polls always change significantly in the final stretch, says Marcin Duma, head of IBRiS.
It is worth recalling that Donald Tusk announced the “march of a million hearts” for October 1. Marcin Duma believes that this is “a good moment because you can arouse emotions among people who are waiting for someone to convince them.” – Then PiS will probably intensify its referendum campaign. And the smaller ones? They will try to fit between the blocks with their messages and drive a wedge between KO and PiS – analyzes Marcin Duma in an interview with “Rz”.