Leading economic research institutes in Germany have prepared forecasts for the country’s economy. In their opinion, economic growth this year will be lower than expected a few months ago. However, the situation should improve in 2024.
The Leibniz Institute for Economic Research in Halle, the ifo Institute in Munich, the Institute for the World Economy in Kiel and the RWI Institute for Economic Research in Essen have prepared forecasts for the German economy. They do not inspire optimism. According to experts, our neighbor’s economy will shrink this year – instead of the expected GDP growth of 0.3%, they now predict its decline by 0.6%.
Economy of Germany. Will there be improvement in 2024?
– The most important reason is that industry and private consumption are recovering slower than we expected in spring – explains Oliver Holtemöller, vice-president of the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research in Halle.
However, next year is expected to bring another growth, according to economists’ forecasts, by 1.3%. – Recently, wages have increased due to inflation, energy prices have fallen, and exporters have passed some of the higher costs (overseas) so that purchasing power is returning – emphasize experts who believe that the recession in Germany should end by the end of the year.
Economists predict that in 2024 there will be a decline in unemployment and inflation – this year it should amount to 6.1%, and in 2024 it will decrease to 2.6%.
Let us remind you that the data published this week by the German statistical office shows that inflation in our western neighbors amounted to 4.3% in September, compared to 6.4%. in August. This is a better result than analysts predicted (4.6 percent was expected), and the lowest reading since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine. Germany’s core inflation rate, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, fell to 4.6%. on an annual basis from 5.5 percent in August.