There is a clear revival in banks: for 3 months the demand for housing loans has been on par with the level from the beginning of 2019. The sale of loans will only grow: a few days ago a wave of people who were getting ready for a loan with a subsidy started. Interest rate cuts may also start soon, which will facilitate access to “mortgages” for everyone, not just the selected ones.
In June, the demand for loans was 1/4 higher than a year ago, according to BIK data. The fact that we are dealing with a consistent improvement of the economic situation on the mortgage market, which has been going on for 10 months, makes us more optimistic. As a result, the demand for loans oscillates around twice that recorded in August 2022, i.e. in the month of the worst mortgage drought.
The banks are boiling. Poles submit loan applications
The reconstruction of the credit market is the result of at least a few changes. Let us recall that the Polish Financial Supervision Authority allowed banks to approach creditworthiness tests more liberally, and the MPC stopped raising interest rates. This has already caused many compatriots to regain their creditworthiness. So some buyers returned to the market. An additional motivator was the imminent start of the cheap loans program for people buying their first apartment (“Secure Credit 2 percent”) – we read in the analysis prepared by Bartosz Turek, the main analyst of HREIT.
The number of submitted loan applications is growing day by day: customers who were waiting for the start of the subsidy program started with a complete set of documents. Hard data on the number of submitted applications will be known only in a month, but it is already clear that the interest in the government loan subsidy program is huge. It is hardly surprising – “Safe loan 2 percent”. tempts with a 3-4 times lower interest rate than a standard “mortgage”, and when applying for a loan with a subsidy, you only need a much lower income than with ordinary debt.
2% secure loan The minister is no longer talking about 10,000. interested
The analyst believes that the government’s estimate of 10,000 people who may be interested in a loan is definitely too low. Anyway, the government quickly began to correct the calculations that were included in the justification to the bill. Already after the first day of the program, Minister Waldemar Buda spoke in the media about 12,000. potential buyers interested in a cheaper “mortgage”.
What’s more, data on Internet traffic suggest that the interest in “Secure Loan 2%” is not weakening, but is growing exponentially. I don’t think anyone should have any doubts that by the end of the year there will be more applicants for a cheap loan than the ministry expected. It is quite realistic to grant even 40-60 thousand preferential “mortgages”.
In the first year of the programme, there are no limits, so any applicant who meets the conditions will receive a subsidy. From 2024, there will be limits, but it has not yet been announced how they will be structured: whether they will concern the number of applications or the amount allocated for subsidies.