There will be a larger selection of apartments, but prices will increase – forecasts for the second quarter of 2024

– Interest in apartments is quite stable, but most often we just browse the offers and get an idea of ​​the situation. The lack of interest rate cuts still deprives many of us of the chance to own our own home. In turn, the announcement of the #naStart Loan gave some people high hopes for an apartment, and others feared that prices would soar again. Our mood surveys after the first quarter indicate general uncertainty about the future and waiting to see what will happen, says Rafał Bieńkowski from Nieruchomosci-online.pl.

The atmosphere of stabilization and waiting is also confirmed by the Nieruchomosci-online.pl mood barometer, which in the first quarter of this year was 55.6 points. per 100. This is almost exactly the same as at the end of last year.

And what awaits us in the coming months? In the latest survey, over 1,200 real estate agents shared their forecasts. These are the most likely scenarios that buyers and sellers may encounter in the second quarter (April-June).

More offers means better cards in the hands of buyers

First of all, there will be plenty to choose from. The number of advertisements on the secondary market has been systematically increasing since January and this trend is likely to continue – 54% of respondents think so. agents who took part in the study. 32% expect the current number of advertisements to be maintained. respondents, and only 14 percent predicts that the choice will be smaller than at the beginning of the year.

– Buyers are no longer under as much pressure as last year, when Bezpieczny Kredyt 2% instantly cleared the offer of apartments in the most popular sizes. As we remember, as a result, in many cities there was nothing to buy and there was a race for apartments. Now we have more normality: there are no longer long queues of interested sellers, more apartments are coming to the market, so buyers finally have time to make a decision. – says Rafał Bieńkowski from Nieruchomosci-online.pl.

He adds that in his opinion the market is tilting a little more toward the buyer. The constantly growing number of offers will mean that in the second quarter, customers will have slightly better cards in their hands during negotiations. – As the competition for offers on the secondary market will increase, owners will have to be more flexible. Especially those who need to sell their apartment relatively quickly, without waiting for people with the support of #naStart Loan to knock on their door –adds Bieńkowski.

The number of offers will increase, and the number of people looking for an apartment will also increase. Moderate increase in demand in the second quarter of this year. predicts 59 percent intermediaries.

Safe Credit 2%. it doesn't let itself be forgotten

When it comes to prices, the forecasts leave no doubts – 63 percent. agents participating in the survey predict that apartments on the secondary market will continue to become more expensive (but only moderately) in the coming months. 27 percent intermediaries expect prices to stabilize at the current high level, and only 10 percent sees opportunities for price cuts somewhere.

– There are many reasons why apartments on the secondary market become more expensive. On the one hand, we have objective factors, such as inflation or salary increases. Because let's remember that housing prices also follow higher salaries, even if they do not increase in all industries. On the other hand, we have ordinary emotions. The mood of private sellers is unstable (much more than that of developers) and often dictated by news from the market – says Rafał Bieńkowski.

And today the news is that the announced #naStart Loan will stimulate demand for apartments. Although the program is scheduled to come into force in a few months, some sellers may already want to increase their asking price.

– Our sentiment survey also points to another important conclusion in the context of prices. According to agents, the situation on the real estate market is still affected to some extent by Bezpieczny Kredyt 2%, although the program has already been closed. However, it was so significant that its consequences are still alive: we were left not only with increased prices, but also with still very high expectations on the part of some sellers who are still affected by that hot atmosphere – adds Rafał Bieńkowski from Nieruchomosci-online.pl.

Starter apartment – ​​program assumptions

– We want the new regulations, which are one of the three elements of the construction and housing development strategy in Poland, to enter into force in the second half of 2024. The #naStart housing loan, i.e. with subsidized installments, will be available until the end of 2027 in the case of purchasing your first property. Families with at least three children will also have this opportunity if the purchased apartment or single-family house built to improve living conditions is not their first property. At the same time, we retain the possibility of BGK granting a guarantee for the repayment of part of the loan, i.e. the so-called own contribution guarantee – said Minister of Development and Technology Krzysztof Hetman at the beginning of April, when he presented the assumptions of the program.

People who will be eligible for a #naStart housing loan will be:

• They are under 35 years of age if they apply for a loan as singles. There will be no age limit if the household consists of at least two people (two borrowers or a borrower + a child),

• They do not own and have not owned a flat (single-family house), unless the flat they own is a share (not higher than 50%) in the ownership right to the flat or cooperative ownership right to the flat, obtained by inheritance or donation. The above limit will not include real estate obtained by inheritance or donation, which the person applying for the loan previously sold as a donation to a person outside his or her household.

• They own no more than one apartment and the household includes at least three children.

The own contribution guarantee will be provided by Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego and will cover (i.e. secure repayment to the bank) the borrower's missing amount at the level of 20%. value of the purchased property, but not higher than PLN 100,000. zloty.

We write more about the assumptions in the text below.