Interest rates There is a decision of the Monetary Policy Council
The Monetary Policy Council (MPC) decided to keep the NBP interest rates unchanged.
After the meeting that started on Tuesday, the Monetary Policy Council decided to leave interest rates at the current level. Currently, the reference rate is 5.75%. on an annual basis.
Inflation is falling
Let us recall that at the end of last week the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported that inflation in March this year. was 1.9 percent Every year. This is the lowest level in five years. Preliminary data also means that inflation remains within the inflation target of the National Bank of Poland (NBP), which is 2.5%. +/- 1 percentage point.
According to Bank Pekao economists, inflation is only “temporarily” within target, uncertainty regarding regulated energy prices (to which the Monetary Policy Council pays great attention) and the expected rebound in inflation in the second half of this year (analysts forecast that it will increase to 4-4 at the end of the year). 4.5 percent) is an argument for refraining from reducing interest rates.
No raises until the end of the year
According to experts, uncertainty and a possible return of high inflation will keep interest rates high until the end of the year. Pekao bank economists point out that although the main inflation rate fell below the NBP target, according to their estimates, core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) was still nearly twice as high as the inflation target in March (approx. 4.6% year-on-year year).
Also, according to Santander Bank Polska economists, the path of core inflation will be more important for the Monetary Policy Council, which may remain in the range of 4-5 percent until the end of next year. – This, given the economic recovery, will, in our opinion, give the Monetary Policy Council an argument to keep rates unchanged until Q3 2025 – institutional analysts predict.
