Will this be a dear Easter? Poles do not hide their concerns

As the UCE RESEARCH and Shopfully Poland study shows, as many as 73 percent Poles believe that the armed conflict in the Middle East will negatively affect this year’s prices of Christmas products in Polish stores. 14.3% have the opposite opinion. respondents, and 12.7 percent he can’t define it.

– The predominance of opinions pointing to a possible price increase is the result of both rational economic reasons and the continuing sensitivity among consumers to factors that may again trigger inflationary pressure. The experience of recent years has made Poles observe international events much more closely and more often link them with potential price changes in retail trade – comments Robert Biegaj, co-author of the study from Shopfully Poland.

Easter more expensive than usual?

Referring to the group that is not afraid of price increases, Biegaj emphasizes that such voices may result from the belief that the Polish retail market is more resistant to external shocks today than a few years ago. It is known that retail chains increasingly use long-term contracts, diversify suppliers and try to stabilize prices for consumers. Additionally, products manufactured locally or with a short supply chain are virtually immune to cost increases resulting from geopolitical tensions.

– The increase in prices before the holidays is a natural phenomenon resulting from the seasonal increase in demand. During such a period, the prices of some products usually go up by approximately 2-5% on average. This year, the conflict in the Middle East is additionally increasing cost pressure in the economy, so this year’s price increases in stores may turn out to be slightly higher than in a typical pre-Christmas period. Our research shows that this is exactly what most consumers expect – emphasizes the co-author of the report.

The authors of the document indicate that Poles are afraid of destabilization of global energy markets and disruptions in international trade. A possible escalation of the conflict in the Middle East with the participation of countries such as the United States, Israel and Iran may actually have a real impact on the operating costs of the economy. Conflicts in this region often impact global oil markets, which translates into higher transport, energy and production costs. If fuel and energy prices were to rise significantly as a result of further geopolitical tensions, some of these costs could be passed on to retail prices in stores.

– In such a scenario, Christmas increases could be higher than usual. Instead of the typical few percent, the price increase in selected categories could reach approximately 5-8%, and in the case of products particularly sensitive to energy and transport costs – even approximately 10%. However, this would not be the result solely of the decisions of retail chains. Rather, it would be a consequence of increasing costs throughout the entire supply chain – from producers, through logistics, to retail. Nevertheless, I believe that this year before the holidays we will experience standard price increases in stores, because retailers will not want to let consumers get scared. Strong prices may go up only in subsequent periods – explains Biegaj.

According to the co-author of the report, the conflict in the Middle East may have the greatest impact on the prices of products most dependent on energy, transport and global supply chains. The largest increases may then concern sweets, goods requiring refrigeration and imports, and some gift items, while other market segments may remain relatively stable. However, limited availability will primarily affect imported, premium or logistically sensitive products, i.e. those most dependent on global supply chains.

Don’t panic!

The authors of the report emphasize that it is crucial that consumers do not succumb to unnecessary panic. If they start buying various types of goods en masse before the holidays, then among the many honest retailers there may also be entities that will try to take advantage of this situation and raise prices. In the recent past, we have had many similar examples, such as buying out sugar or butter. This type of behavior very often leads to a sharp increase in demand, which automatically translates into price pressure. As a result, a self-propelling mechanism is created. Fears of price increases encourage excessive stockpiling, which in turn promotes further price increases.

– To put it bluntly, in many such situations, consumers to some extent contribute to the spiral of price increases. That’s why it’s worth talking about it openly – staying calm and planning your purchases wisely is beneficial both for the buyers themselves and for the stability of the market – summarize the authors of the study.

The survey was conducted in early March 2026 using the CAWI (Computer-Assisted Web Interview) method, which involves the implementation of computer-assisted online surveys. The study was carried out by the analytical and research platform UCE RESEARCH and Shopfully Poland on a nationwide sample of 1,008 adult Poles aged 18-80. Respondents were selected randomly (i.e. in terms of age, gender and region) using a research panel, and participation in the study was anonymous.