Will the return of CPN lower inflation? There are more culprits

Today, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) presented the final data on consumer inflation in July. It amounted to 3 percent. year to year, compared to 2.5 percent a month earlier. Thus, the preliminary estimate for July inflation presented two weeks ago was confirmed. There was also an increase on a monthly basis – by 0.8%.

Inflation up. The reason is fuel, but not only that

Why did prices increase in July? There is no surprise. Last month, the Lower Fuel Prices (CPN) package, which had been in force for three months, expired. After the package was abolished, fuel prices at stations immediately increased. An increase – compared to June – also occurred in the following categories: recreation, sport and culture. In turn, a decline was recorded, among others, in the area of ​​food and non-alcoholic beverages.

– In July this year compared to the previous month, the greatest impact on the price index of consumer goods and services in general had higher prices in the following areas: transport (by 7.4%), recreation, sports and culture (by 3.6%), and information and communication (by 1.6%), which increased the index by: 0.73 percentage points and 0.23 percentage points, respectively. and 0.08 percentage points Lower prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages (by 0.8%), clothing and footwear (by 4.1%), and personal hygiene, social protection and other goods and services (by 0.4%) reduced this indicator by 0.20 percentage points and 0.15 percentage points, respectively. and 0.02 percentage points – calculated by the Central Statistical Office.

Transport is also the leader when it comes to price comparisons as of July 2025. – Compared to the same month of the previous year, higher prices include: in terms of: use of an apartment or house, supply of water, electricity, gas and other fuels (by 4.5%), transport (by 7.0%), recreation, sports and culture (by 5.4%), alcoholic beverages and tobacco products (by 6.9%), health (by 4.9%), as well as information and communication (by 5.2%) increased the indicator by: 0.91 percentage points, 0.71 percentage points, 0.35 respectively percentage points, 0.33 percentage points, 0.30 percentage points and 0.26 percentage points – we read in the announcement.

Lower prices for clothing and footwear (by 3.6%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (by 0.4%), and home and household equipment (by 0.6%) reduced the index by 0.13 percentage points and 0.11 percentage points, respectively. and 0.03 percentage points

The partial restoration of the CPN package announced today by Prime Minister Donald Tusk gives hope that August’s inflation data will be more optimistic. The Central Statistical Office will present preliminary data for the current month at the end of August.