Will Poland face a wave of bankruptcies? Expert: A bad trend is beginning for many industries

Monika Różycka: What was 2024 like for entrepreneurs?

Radosław Mroczka: It was a difficult year due to the changing and turbulent external conditions for doing business. Related to both politics and the economy, which, in particular, micro and small entrepreneurs have no direct influence on. Unlike large international corporations that have larger budgets than nation states and have almost always had their lobbyists. Nowadays, just look at Elon Musk’s role as an advisor to President Trump.

Micro and small companies operate on a much smaller scale than others, but their importance for the economy is “macro”. According to data from 2024, they constitute over 97%. all companies in the country. In the enterprise sector, their share in generating GDP value reaches over 41%. Of these, sole proprietorships account for as much as 74%. all micro-enterprises.

To sum up the past year, did more bad or good things happen for business?

I have the impression that more bad than good has happened for entrepreneurs, although there will probably be someone who thinks otherwise. Yes, it is worth noting several events that helped micro-entrepreneurs, i.e. a cosmetic change in health insurance premiums – with the announcement of the continuation of government work, which will bring results only in 2026 at the earliest. Also holidays from ZUS – although without health insurance premiums, entrepreneurs are still very happy about it they accept. Unfortunately, for example, one of the proposals included in Tusk’s 100 specifics, i.e. the entire regulation of the Polish Order, which the government was supposed to eliminate along with its harmful effects on the micro and small enterprise sector, was not abolished.

The government focused mainly on the issue and scope of changes regarding health insurance premiums. It must be admitted that the current solutions regarding the regulation of this contribution are unfortunate, in my opinion, both for entrepreneurs and taxpayers. The health contribution has become a de facto health tax, the amount of which depends on the income generated, while maintaining a minimum contribution amount. Its amount has no impact on the scope of benefits anyway, because it has no impact on access to public health care.

So no matter how much you pay, you still have to wait in longer and longer queues for health services, and if you need urgent tests or an immediate consultation, you do it privately, so you actually pay twice. Therefore, I believe that it is justified to claim that it is a health tax and not a contribution.

Which industries suffered the most last year?

The transport industry was strongly affected by the changes introduced by the EU and the so-called electromobility package. It forced entrepreneurs to incur higher costs, which resulted in a reduction of their fleet by an average of 10%. The catering industry is struggling with the effects of increasing energy and gas prices and inflation in the prices of goods (food products). The trading industry is also additionally struggling with lack of liquidity due to customer insolvency and high interest on liquidity loans. The construction industry also has similar problems, which, along with the production industry, are more severely affected by the increase in the minimum wage.