When will apartments start to become cheaper? Bank analysts pointed to a specific moment

The question of when real estate prices will start to fall appears less and less frequently in the media. We have become accustomed to the fact that the good news for buyers is that they do not increase or fall by 1%. The change is small, but at least it is not an increase of several percent. This happened in 2023, when the “Safe 2% Credit” program became popular. and those interested had a feeling that it would not last long, so they went on a quick shopping spree.

When will apartments start to become cheaper?

And the moment when the market stops feeling the effects of loan subsidies will be the moment when prices will start to fall, economists from Bank Pekao believe. However, before it gets cheaper, it will be more expensive for a while.

Analysts forecast that “from the second quarter of 2025, prices should start to decline slightly”, but by then they will increase in the seven largest cities by about 2.5%.

“According to our model forecast, taking into account mainly macroeconomic factors, the transaction prices of real estate sold on the primary market will reach an average level of PLN 14,500 in the first quarter of 2025. PLN per square meter (compared to the current level of PLN 14.1 thousand). In the following quarters, the growth rate will gradually decline, and taking into account the very high base effect, even pushing it below zero at the end of 2025. – they wrote.

The effects of loan subsidies must be eliminated

They also listed five conditions that would favor reductions. These include:

• the effects of high real interest rates appearing with a long delay

• high supply of apartments (i.e. a larger number of apartments for sale)

• the already mentioned expiration of the influence of the government program “Safe Credit for 2%”. and

• there is less and less likelihood of introducing a new housing loan subsidy program.

Due to the government’s indecision, the latter is still hypothetical. Although there is little indication that the supporters of the subsidy program will achieve anything, they have been repeating for months that “the assumptions of the project will be presented any day now.” And this is regardless of the fact that the project did not enjoy the support of half of the coalition partners even for a moment – the Left and Poland 2050 consistently announced from the beginning that they would not vote for any subsidies.