Today, a meteorological summer begins. What weather to expect?

Meteorological summer begins on June 1 and ends with the holidays – August 31. Forecasts indicate that this year’s weather will be very warm again, although there is nothing to indicate for now.

Meteorologists have surprising compliance as to the anticipated temperatures in the coming months. Both the American CFS and European ECMWF indicate that summer in Poland will be warmer than the norm, although without major extremes.

In practice, this means that in the period from June to August the temperatures will be moderately increased – the deviation from the average is to be about 1 degree of Celsius, sometimes reaching 1.5 degrees. These are not impressive numbers, but enough to feel a clear difference compared to the last cold weeks.

The first signs of summer already at the beginning of June

Changing the aura will not wait long. The first decade of June will bring temperatures exceeding 25 degrees Celsius. This means not only the return of a typical summer climate, but also the possibility of the first heat. Let us remind you that temperatures of at least 30 degrees are considered heat.

“They will appear in the first decade of June, which is to bring many days with temperatures exceeding 25 ℃. Even the first heat this season is possible,” informs Onet.

Dry or wet June? Divided forecasts

Although temperature forecasts are consistent, meteorologists are not unanimous in terms of rainfall. According to the European ECMWF model, June will be a dry month. It looks different in American forecasts, which suggest a more diverse situation. CFS predicts that rainfall will be normal or slightly above it. It is to be dry only in the northwest, where there will be less rain than usual.

Summer under the sign of rainfall

Both July and August promise to be extremely dry. Both main meteorological models predict a significant precipitation deficit throughout Central Europe, including Poland.

In combination with expected temperatures – which are also to exceed the average – such a scenario means numerous sunny days and a minimal risk of storms and heavy rainfall.

With a distance to seasonal forecasts

Although the presented forecasts are consistent and are based on advanced climate models, it is worth remembering that seasonal predictions are always associated with the risk of error.

May this year is the best proof of how much reality can differ from predictions. According to the announcement, he was to be a month with more than 1 ℃ warmer than the norm. “Ultimately, it turned out to be the coldest since 1991.” – experts remind.