This is the best place to invest. The expert has no doubts

Money in a sock? It never paid off. Why? The calculation is simple. Over the last 20 years, inflation has eaten up almost half of the value of every hundred zlotys. So what gives real profit? Real estate, bullion, cryptocurrencies or the stock market? Experts from the RynekPierwotny.pl portal analyzed which asset classes brought the highest rates of return in the long-term investment horizon.

Real estate – a sure thing in the long term

Analyzes show that real estate, even purchased “on the hill”, is as good as the best alternatives in the next dozen or so years. Purchasing an apartment on credit in a difficult market moment may provide a high return in the long term, but in the short term it requires patience and subsidized installments.

– Comparing investments is a difficult art and largely depends on the assumptions made. In the context of any investment, two critical moments are crucial for its results – the moment of purchase of a given asset class and the moment of its sale. While shopping on the market during a sale works to the advantage of our wallets, because it allows us to “enter” cheaper and “generate” profits from the very beginning, the opposite is true when purchasing at an expensive exchange rate, when the first years may bring losses – explains Jan Dziekoński, Chief Economist of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal.

2008 marked the purchase of real estate during the global financial crisis. Apartment prices have fallen by 20-30 percent in five years. in the largest cities, while the US stock market rebounded and the S&P 500 index has since increased by 1,180%. along with dividends.

– As our analysis showed, in the same time horizon, an equally attractive increase in value was ensured by the purchase of real estate on credit (at 80 percent LTV, i.e. 80 percent debt level in relation to 20 percent own contribution) – notes Jan Dziekoński and reminds that 2008 on the real estate market meant a purchase at a high price.

– If we assume that the rent profits were used to overpay the loan installments, then the so-called financial leverage, we would be able to achieve a return of +810%. if we decided to sell it at the end of 2025. However, there is one “but”. We can talk about such profitability in the longer term. However, if an investor decided to sell such a property in the first years after the global financial crisis, it would be tantamount to a loss – purchasing an apartment with the help of a loan would result in a loss of value, even despite renting it – moreover, it was necessary to add to the loan installments – says the expert.

Bullion and the stock exchange – a stable alternative

The analysis shows that bullion was also profitable. Their value increased mainly in moments of market uncertainty and capital relocation, which made gold and silver offer attractive rates of return.

– Although they do not provide any profits other than the increase in their value, they gained significantly, especially at the turn of 2024 and 2025. When the market became more and more unpredictable, and investors on Wall Street turned out to be very sensitive to each subsequent announcement by Donald Trump, as a result of the relocation of capital – silver and gold gained. From 2008 to 2025, their value increased by 676%. and 500 percent However, recent months have seen a rapid decline from the peaks, which is worth paying attention to when choosing these asset classes, notes Dziekoński.

The Polish stock exchange grew steadily, although not as spectacularly as real estate or metals. WIG increased its value by 406% and WIG20 by 231%, including dividends.

Purchasing an apartment for cash in 2008 meant a high entry barrier and required patience. The increase in value was generated mainly by rent, and it took until around 2018 for prices to return to 2008 levels. By 2025, the increase was 230%.

– Polish bonds (TBSP bond index on the chart) have fallen far behind. Of course, they were a better alternative than keeping money in a sock, but compared to alternative asset classes they only offered +100%. increase in value, including interest, notes Dziekoński.

2013 – the trough that brought profit

2013 was a trough on the real estate market and the best time to buy apartments. Then the profitability of real estate skyrocketed, both when purchasing for cash and on credit.

– Even the American stock exchange did not show such strong dynamics during this period. The hierarchy of profitability was quite similar to that of purchases in 2008, i.e. the highest rates of return were generated by bullion, followed by the Polish stock exchange (for which last year was actually the golden era), says Dziekoński.

Bitcoin – a phenomenon of recent years

In 2009, the world first heard about Bitcoin. The rate of return exceeded everything that traditional markets had offered so far, giving almost 14,000% in 12 years. refund.

– However, it is not as perfect an asset class as it might seem – the potential for “cosmic increases” has already been exhausted, and in the last month it lost over 30%. value, without giving any profits such as interest or dividends – emphasizes Dziekoński.

What to invest in today?

Investment decisions have never been obvious in real time, even though years of hindsight show clear winners.

– Today, it is easy to point to winners and build a narrative about “obvious” investment choices, although in real time these decisions did not have to be so clear – notes Dziekoński.

Real estate remains competitive with long-term investing, efficient leasing and moderate leverage. However, every asset class carries the risk of losses, including real estate, with a short investment horizon and excessive optimism.

– It depends on the risk appetite, the liquidity required by the investor, as well as the own contribution and creditworthiness – but with long-term investing, using safe leverage and under the condition of effective rental (“zero” vacancy, minimizing consumption), real estate can be competitive with the stock exchange, bullion and basic cryptocurrency. However, as the analysis shows – you can lose on each of these asset classes – including real estate – with a sufficiently short investment horizon and excessive optimism – summarizes Dziekoński.