This is the average pension in 2026. These are the latest forecasts

The draft budget for next year predicts that the expenditure of the Social Insurance Fund (FUS) will exceed half a trillion zlotys, of which PLN 444 billion will be allocated to the payment of pensions. Estimates of the Social Insurance Institution (ZUS) show that in 2026 the average monthly number of retirees and disability pensioners will amount to over 8.5 million people, 123 thousand more than more than this year. The indexation of pensions and annuities planned for March is expected to amount to less than 4.9%.

The expected amount of indexation of benefits is lower than in recent years. This year it was 5.5%, and two years ago it was over 14%. However, it should be remembered that the level of indexation is also related to the level of inflation. In 2023, it reached 20%, and now it is slowly approaching the inflation target (2.5% with a symmetrical deviation range of ±1 percentage point in the medium term).

How much will the minimum and average pension be?

The calculations presented by “Fakt” show that if the forecast level of indexation were confirmed, the minimum pension would increase from the current PLN 1,878.91 to PLN 1,961.58 gross. This would also be the amount of the 13th and 14th pension. The first benefit will be paid in April, the second one most likely in September. The average monthly pension amount will be nearly PLN 4,320 gross.

President Karol Nawrocki wants changes in the indexation of benefits. The bill he submitted assumes increasing the lowest pensions by a guaranteed amount of PLN 150. The minimum pension would then increase to PLN 2,030 gross. The Minister of Family, Labor and Social Policy is skeptical about this proposal. Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk believes that the current percentage indexation system better protects seniors against the loss of the real value of their pensions.

– Next year’s indexation will be such as to maintain the purchasing power of senior households – emphasized the head of the Ministry of Labor. – The increase in inflation may be low, but this does not mean that the mechanism should be changed. Quota indexation means that some seniors actually lose, which is why the current model is simply more fair – she added.