There are fewer and fewer apartments to buy, but prices are not rising. The reason may surprise you

The offer of apartments on the secondary market has shrunk again. In August, the number of available premises decreased both throughout the country and in all largest Polish metropolises. Despite this, prices of used apartments have not gone up everywhere. In some cities they remained stable, and in some they even decreased.

According to the analysis of the GetHome.pl portal, one of the reasons may be the very large offer of developer apartments. Buyers therefore have an alternative to second-hand premises, which limits the ability of sellers to freely raise prices.

The number of apartments on the secondary market is systematically decreasing

Data from the search engine of real estate portals Adradar show that at the end of August there were approximately 134,500 units for sale throughout the country. apartments from the secondary market. A month earlier, the offer amounted to approximately 137,000. premises. This is another decline in available supply.

In August, the owners put 30,500 units up for sale. apartments, i.e. by 6%. less than in July. At the same time, approximately 33,000 items disappeared from the market. premises. Some of them have been sold and some have been withdrawn from advertisements. Although in this case the result was also lower than a month earlier, the number of apartments disappearing from the market still exceeded the number of new offers.

– August is traditionally one of the months when the activity of housing market participants weakens. This applies to both people putting up apartments for sale and buyers. It is worth noting, however, that despite the summer slowdown, slightly more apartments disappeared from the market than a year earlier. This suggests that we are dealing with a seasonal slowdown in activity rather than a clear weakening of demand – comments Marek Wielgo, an expert at GetHome.pl.

In all the largest cities the offer was smaller

The shrinking of the secondary market did not affect only parts of the country. In August, the number of offers decreased in all seven analyzed metropolises.

Warsaw still had the largest offer, although the number of available apartments decreased from 14.3 thousand. up to 13.9 thousand In Krakow it dropped from 8,000. to 7.6 thousand, and in Wrocław from 7.8 thousand. up to 7.6 thousand In Tricity, the number of offers decreased from 8.2 thousand. up to 7.7 thousand

Decreases were also recorded in Łódź, where the offer decreased from 4.6 thousand. up to 4.5 thousand apartments, in Poznań – with 3.8 thousand up to 3.6 thousand – and in Katowice, where the number of available premises decreased from 2.2 thousand. up to 2.1 thousand

The difference is even more visible on an annual basis. Compared to August last year, the offer of second-hand apartments decreased in all analyzed metropolises. The largest decline was recorded in Wrocław, by as much as 22%. In Warsaw it was -20 percent, in Kraków and Łódź -15 percent, in Katowice -13 percent, and in Tricity and Poznań -8 percent each.

Fewer apartments does not automatically mean higher prices

A shrinking offer could suggest that sellers have an increasing advantage and can raise prices. However, August’s data show that the market does not work so simply these days.

Back in July, average asking prices were rising in all seven metropolises. In August the situation was much more diverse.

The average price per square meter increased the most in Wrocław – from PLN 13.7 thousand. up to 14.5 thousand PLN, i.e. by 6%. In Łódź it increased from 9,000. up to 9.2 thousand PLN, in Tricity from PLN 17.3 thousand. up to 17.4 thousand PLN, and in Warsaw from PLN 18,000. up to 18.1 thousand zloty.

In other cities, prices behaved differently. In Kraków, the average dropped from 17.1 thousand. up to 16.9 thousand PLN per sq m, in Poznań from 12.1 thousand up to 12 thousand PLN, and in Katowice with just over 12.1 thousand. to below 12.1 thousand PLN per square meter.

– The mere decline in the number of offers does not mean that apartment owners can freely increase prices. In many cities, buyers today have a very wide selection of new premises from developers, so sellers on the secondary market must take into account strong competition. This is one of the reasons why the shrinking offer does not automatically translate into an increase in the prices of used apartments – says Marek Wielgo.

The GetHome.pl portal expert points to Wrocław and Łódź. An increase in the average offer price of apartments by 6%, respectively. and 2 percent within a month does not necessarily mean that owners have suddenly raised their expectations. It is possible that cheaper apartments disappeared from the market faster, and the share of more expensive apartments among the remaining offers increased.

In Łódź, such a mechanism is particularly visible. Apartments from the secondary market are on average over one fifth cheaper than those offered by developers. At the same time, the primary market offer is more than twice as large as the secondary market offer.

Developers have a strong argument in the fight for customers

For buyers, the situation looks completely different than it might result from the decline in the number of used apartments alone. In all seven analyzed metropolises, developers’ offer is greater than the number of premises available on the secondary market.

In Warsaw, developers offered approximately 17.5 thousand sq m in August. apartments, while owners of second-hand premises had 13.9 thousand on offer. apartments. In Krakow it was 11.8 thousand respectively. and 7.6 thousand, while in Łódź the difference was even greater – about 11 thousand. apartments on the primary market compared to 4.5 thousand on the secondary market.

It is the large supply of new apartments that means that owners of used premises cannot treat the smaller number of competitive offers as a simple argument for a price increase.

– A year or two ago, the limited supply of apartments on the secondary market could have led to a more visible increase in prices. Currently, the barrier is the very large offer of developer apartments. Buyers can therefore choose between used and new premises, and this weakens the pressure on price increases on the secondary market, says Wielgo.

The secondary market still has one advantage

However, used apartments can still attract customers due to their price. In August, in all major metropolises, they cost on average less per square meter than the premises offered by developers. However, the scale of the difference varied greatly.

In Warsaw, the average price of a second-hand apartment was PLN 18,100. PLN per square meter, compared to PLN 19.6 thousand PLN on the primary market. This means a difference of 8%. In Wrocław, used apartments were cheaper on average by 8%, in the Tricity by 2%, in Łódź by as much as 21%, in Poznań by 16%, and in Katowice by 6%.

The smallest price advantage on the secondary market occurred in Kraków. There, the average price per square meter was lower than the developer price by only about 2%.

– It is no coincidence that in Krakow the average price of apartments on the secondary market dropped slightly despite the shrinking offer. If used apartments do not offer buyers a clear price advantage compared to new apartments, it becomes more difficult for landlords to raise rates. All the more so because developers still have a very large offer of apartments and are increasingly fighting for customers with additional incentives, e.g. in the form of large discounts – sums up Wielgo.