The war is affecting Polish arms contracts. Supplies for the army at risk

The prolonged conflict in the Middle East may affect the implementation of arms orders that Poland has placed with the United States. This mainly concerns the supply of missiles for the new Patriot batteries and weapons for the F-35 fighters. As hostilities intensify, the consumption of missiles and bombs increases, which increases the risk that part of American production will be directed primarily to current military operations and to support allies.

Ammunition consumption

The problem became visible already in the first four days of the operation. As calculated by experts from the Washington Institute for Foreign Policy Research, during 96 hours of fighting, the United States and its partners used almost 5.2 thousand. rockets and bombs of 35 different types. This pool included as many as 950 missiles for Patriot launchers, which constitute the basis of the allies’ air defense. According to experts, this means using an amount equivalent to 18 months of production on the joint Lockheed Martin-Boeing line, which currently produces 620 interceptors per year.

The PAC-3 MSE and PAC-2 GEM-T missiles are particularly important for Poland and are also in the center of interest of the Ministry of National Defense. In mid-2025, the Ministry of Defense ordered almost 800 PAC-2 GEM-T missiles from the USA for an amount of nearly $6 billion. This weaponry is to be used in the next six Patriot batteries ordered by Poland, and the contract is to start in 2027. It is therefore not surprising that the situation in the Middle East raises concerns in the Ministry of Defense.

Replenishment of supplies

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz admitted that replenishing such stocks of anti-aircraft defense missiles would take a long time. As he noted, production by both European and American industries remains insufficient today and must increase significantly.

The risk does not only apply to Patriot missiles. In October 2025, Warsaw also ordered AIM-120D AMRAAM missiles, which are to be included in the equipment of F-35 aircraft. The first four machines of this type are to arrive in Poland in 2026, and the missiles are to appear in 2030. Meanwhile, reports from the region indicate that these missiles are also becoming scarce. Australia had to declare support and announced that it was sending a batch of such ammunition to the United Arab Emirates to support operations against Shahed drones.

A similar alarm was raised in France, whose Rafale planes defend the airspace over the UAE. The French Prime Minister has called a crisis meeting over the shortage of MICA missiles. In the opinion of General Stanisław Koziej, former head of the National Security Bureau, it is also an important signal for Poland. As he emphasized, if the United States were to wage a long-term war in the Middle East, most of American production would inevitably go there. This means that Polish contracts could be moved to the background.