The war hits the prices of building materials. “This will be a shock”

First calm, then shock. The war is hitting the prices of building materials – warn experts from the RynekPierwotny.pl website. They emphasize that the construction materials market in Poland is entering the phase of a sudden cost shock.

– Although the data for February, which will soon be published by the PSB Group, will most likely show relative stabilization, the reality in March looks completely different. In some segments, prices are rising dramatically, offers are valid for only a few hours, and contractors are starting to have problems with the availability of key materials – says Jarosław Jędrzyński, an expert at the RynekPierwotny.pl portal.

As he notes, the conflict in the Middle East broke out only at the end of the month, so any changes visible in February’s data will still be statistically insignificant and will not show the full scale of current cost tensions.

– However, this does not mean that nothing is happening on the market – emphasize experts from the RynekPierwotny.pl website. On the contrary, the first signals from March indicate that the construction industry may be entering a completely new phase of the cycle.

The market was stable until recently

– At the beginning of 2026, the situation in the construction materials sector remained relatively stable. Price dynamics were low, and some product groups even saw declines, notes Jarosław Jędrzyński.

At that time, the industry operated in conditions of relatively stable energy prices, predictable transport costs and orderly supply chains. This is why experts describe the current changes not as a continuation of the previous trend, but as a sudden and clear turnaround.

March brought a sudden collapse

The situation was changed by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which resulted in an increase in oil and gas prices and, consequently, in higher production costs of construction materials.

This is most visible today on the Styrofoam market. In just a few weeks, prices there increased by several dozen or even more than 100%. At the same time, the possibility of guaranteeing the price at the time of order disappeared, commercial offers became valid not for days but for hours, and problems with material availability appeared on the market.

– This is the result of a direct link between Styrofoam production and the oil market. In practice, this makes this segment the most sensitive and fastest to respond to geopolitical changes – explains the expert of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal.

Cost pressure spreads to other segments

Although the most rapid price movements are currently visible in the polystyrene segment, cost pressure is also beginning to affect other key construction materials. The steel market is particularly important here, which is simultaneously affected by rising energy prices, tensions in global trade and customs duties, restrictions on imports to the European Union and logistical disruptions related to the situation in the Persian Gulf region.

According to RynekPierwotny.pl experts, in such conditions, steel prices in Europe may increase by about 5-10% in the coming months, and even more in more pessimistic scenarios.

– Although steel is not directly dependent on supplies from the Middle East, the conflict affects it indirectly – through energy prices and logistics. Steel production is one of the most energy-intensive industrial processes, and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz region increase the costs of fuel and raw material transport, notes Jędrzyński.

He adds that redirecting sea transport to longer routes – e.g. around Africa – extends delivery times and increases freight costs, which affects the entire production chain.

As a result, cost pressure covers not only insulating materials, but also cement and concrete, steel and structures, transport of all materials, as well as prefabricated elements and construction chemicals. This means that sudden changes observed today in one segment may cover the entire building materials market in the following months.

– Importantly, unlike previous episodes of price increases, the current impulse is simultaneous – it covers both petrochemical raw materials and construction materials. This increases the risk that the increase in costs will be more extensive and more difficult to stop, says Jędrzyński.

The market is losing predictability

Experts point out that the most important change today is not the price level itself, but the way the market functions.

Until recently, stable price lists were in force, investment costs could be planned, and deliveries remained predictable. Now prices are becoming volatile and difficult to forecast, manufacturers are limiting price guarantees, and the risk of delays and material shortages is increasing.

– It was this stage – loss of stability – that in previous cycles heralded stronger price increases in the following months – emphasizes the expert from the RynekPierwotny.pl portal.

February’s PSB data will show an outdated picture

In this context, the PSB Group’s data for February 2026 will be primarily of historical importance – as a picture of the market before the current cost shock.

Regardless of whether they show stabilization or only slight price increases, they will not yet reflect the changes that began to materialize only in March. Only subsequent readings can show to what extent the current cost impulse will translate into a permanent change in the trend in building materials prices.

The industry is at a turning point

The building materials market is at a turning point today. On the one hand, historical data may still suggest stabilization, on the other – current signals indicate a sharp increase in uncertainty and the beginning of new cost pressure.

– Whether the current cost pressure – which already covers both insulating and construction materials – will translate into a lasting price increase will depend primarily on the further course of the conflict in the Middle East, the level of energy and raw material prices, and the response of global supply chains – concludes Jędrzyński.