The vast sea is disappearing. It is the size of a country

In cities such as Aktau in Kazakhstan and Rasht in Iran, the recession of the Caspian Sea is not only visible, but also severe for local communities that rely on its water resources, fishing and tourism.

Atmospheric drama on the Caspian Sea. The reservoir is drying up

Eco-activists living in these cities, Azamat Sarsenbayev and Khashayar Javanmardi, are sounding the alarm, publishing photos and materials documenting the degradation of the water body and environmental changes affecting people who have been associated with the Caspian Sea for generations.

“There is a place on the shoreline from which Azamat Sarsenbayev jumped into the brackish, blue-green Caspian Sea. Today, just a decade later, he has a view of the bare, rocky land stretching towards the horizon. The water has receded far and fast from the coastal city Aktau in Kazakhstan” – CNN describes the phenomenon in a report that appeared on this website’s website.

More than 1,000 miles south, near the Iranian city of Rasht, the situation is also dire. The water there is extremely polluted due to human activity.

The situation is similar in other cities along the more than 4,000-mile coastline of the world’s largest lake.

The Caspian Sea is drying up. What are the reasons?

The process of the Caspian Sea drying up is complex. The long-term decline in water levels – a drop of approximately 2 meters since the 1990s – is the result of, among others, increased evaporation resulting from rising temperatures and disruptions in the inflow of rivers, especially the Volga and Urals. Russia, one of the five riparian countries, has built as many as 40 dams on the Volga, with another 18 under construction. This process significantly reduces the amount of water flowing into the Caspian Sea, and other countries in the region, especially Kazakhstan, see it as a significant reason for the decline in water levels.

Another reason for the shrinking Caspian Sea is climate change and the constant increase in temperature. Climate change is raising global sea levels, but the opposite is true for inland bodies of water. The rising temperature disturbs the balance between the amount of water evaporated and the rainfall that feeds local rivers. Less water in rivers means less and less water in lakes. The circle of dependency closes.

The third reason is the pollution of the reservoir by human activity.

The Aral Sea has already dried up

You don’t have to look far to see the effects of your actions. To see what the future may hold for the Caspian Sea, just look at the situation of the Aral Sea, located on the border of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Once one of the largest lakes in the world, it has almost disappeared, devastated by human activity and the growing climate crisis.

The Caspian Sea is drying up. Less water, more conflict

Experts warn that by the end of the 21st century, the water level may drop by as much as 9-18 meters, and with more pessimistic forecasts, even by 30 meters. This would mean dramatic changes for the reservoir. The northern, shallower part of the Caspian Sea may simply evaporate, and the reduced water level in the remaining part will lead to an oxygen deficit, which in turn will have a disastrous effect on the state of the ecosystem. To put it simply, the lake’s fauna and flora will begin to rapidly die off.

It is worth recalling that the Caspian Sea is a habitat of endemic species, such as the Caspian sturgeon – which is the source of most of the world’s caviar – and the region’s only marine mammal, the Caspian seal. Research shows that the number of the latter has decreased dramatically.

Already in 2020, not a single individual was found in breeding sites on the Durnew Islands, where their occurrence was previously almost universal. Habitat loss due to receding waters, pollution and overfishing poses a huge threat to the survival of these species.

For the basin countries, changes in the Caspian Sea ecosystem mean a crisis. Disappearing fishing grounds, declining tourism, decline in the shipping industry, and growing disputes over access to fresh water may lead to further geopolitical crises in an already unstable region. These could be the first cases of water conflicts on an international scale.

The Caspian Sea is drying up. Conversations that don’t bring results

In the face of an impending ecological catastrophe, coastal countries such as Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are trying to take action, but their cooperation is incomplete and uncoordinated. Many years of talks under the Tehran Convention have still not brought solutions that could actually secure the future of the Caspian Sea and its biodiversity.

The COP29 conference will be held in Baku in November 2024, during which world leaders will discuss climate action. However, even during these talks, it is not certain that the countries concerned will reach sufficient consensus on the protection of the Caspian Sea. Experts indicate that if the countries of the region do not start acting together, a situation similar to the disaster that befell the Aral Sea may occur.

Despite the difficulties and the lack of prospects for quick solutions, activists and local communities are trying to raise awareness of the crisis. Azamat Sarsenbayev, publishing materials on social media, reminds the world of the beauty that still remains and calls for urgent actions to protect this unique sea.