The subsidies will not come back. What next with flats prices?
The real estate market has slowed down. Neither buyers nor sellers are counting on subsidies. Price stabilization and decrease in investments are becoming a new norm.
After a short break, May brought a re -increase in the value of the urban.one index. In a nationwide approach, the reading reached 116.25 points, which means an increase of 0.24 points month to a month and by 3 points year on year. For the largest urban markets – such as Kraków, Wrocław, Gdańsk, Gdynia, Poznań and Łódź – the indicator crossed the border of 130 points in May, reaching an increase of 0.34 points M/Mi 3.46 point y/y.
Price stabilization
Experts emphasize that the following months may bring further price stabilization or small corrections, especially after a period of dynamic increases related to “safe 2 % loan” .. Both buyers and sellers no longer expect support under subsidia programs, which affects the decrease in market activity.
In cities such as Kraków and Wrocław, small price drops are observed, while in Warsaw and the Tri -City prices are rising. In Wrocław, where prices reached the peak in September last year, rates dropped by 3.5 percent. – from 14.5 thousand up to 14 thousand PLN per sq m.
The increases in average rates in Warsaw are mainly due to the appearance of new offers in popular districts-Mokotów and Praga-Południe, which in May responsible for over 25 percent. new offers. Meanwhile, falls on the primary market were recorded in Krakow (-0.4 percent) and Łódź (-3.8 percent).
The high demand is still influenced by high loan costs and the decreasing profitability of investments in rental. According to BIK, 18.6 thousand were signed in May. loan agreements, and in June this number increased to 19.2 thousand, which means the highest result since February 2024.
Careful developers
Developers carefully approach new investments. In May, construction of 11,165 apartments began – it is a decrease of 5.6 percent. M/Mi 10.5 percent r/r. From January to May 2025, construction of 55.9 thousand began. premises. The declines also apply to the outgoing apartments -in May there were 9150 (-8.6 percent m/mi -1.4 percent y/y), and from the beginning of the year -46.9 thousand. (-3 percent y/y). The number of building permits in May increased to 12.7 thousand, but in an annual comparison it is still 25 percent. less.
The segment of construction plots is distinguished against the background of slowdown on the housing market. In May, the Urban.one index for land increased to 155.41 points – by 2.11 points more than in April and by 5.66 points more than a year earlier.
