The race for an apartment to make it before the loan subsidies
Postponing the “Start Credit” to 2025 will, on the one hand, make the coming months nerve-racking for those waiting for this support. On the other hand, it is good news for buyers who do not plan to use the program. They will gain some time to buy a flat more calmly, before the market ignites again. This is the result of a sentiment survey conducted after the second quarter of 2024 by the Nieruchomosci-online.pl portal.
– The second quarter of this year was like a rollercoaster for many buyers and sellers. The expectations of both sides were first heated up by the promise of introducing the “Start-up Credit” this year. Then there was uncertainty whether there would be any support from the state at all. Finally, we had to accept that there would be cheap credit, but probably not until 2025. Ultimately, the situation on the market, which was already on the verge of a boom, calmed down. Although there are also intermediaries who believe that it has “returned to normal” – says Rafał Bieńkowski from Nieruchomosci-online.pl.
This atmosphere of uncertainty and calm is confirmed by the Nieruchomosci-online.pl mood barometer, which in Q2 amounted to 52.7 points. This means that the situation on the housing market has deteriorated by almost 3 points compared to Q1. However, it should be emphasized that even despite this, the barometer still indicates a value slightly above the optimism limit of 50 points.
What about prices? Intermediaries’ opinions are divided
Will postponing the credit program for another year bring about a price correction? This is a question that many Kowalskis are asking themselves. The results of a new sentiment survey show that the opinions of real estate agents are very divided here. In the case of studio apartments, 53% of agents predict that the current level of offer prices will be maintained or moderate decreases in Q3, but 47% are still betting on increases. The situation is similar in the case of larger apartments: 56% of agents expect prices to be maintained or slightly reduced, a smaller group is betting on increases (44%).
Interestingly, forecasts indicate that interest in apartments may increase in Q3 – this is what nearly 50% of agents believe, both in the case of studios and larger premises. This may be a bit surprising, since in recent months we have witnessed a slowdown in demand among the Kowalskis. However, the latest data from Nieruchomosci-online.pl show that the forecasts of agents may be accurate.
– From January to June, interest in apartments on the portal fell month by month. But in July, there was a rebound. The number of contacts that searchers made with advertisers was 17 percent higher than in June –reports Rafał Bieńkowski from Nieruchomosci-online.pl.
How can this be explained? Of course, there are still many people on the market for whom the credit market situation does not matter, because they can afford it and buy, or have a life situation that requires a transaction to be made now. However, according to intermediaries, buyers who do not qualify for the “Startup Credit” could also be more willing to start looking – they are aware that if they continue to delay the decision, they may pay more in a few months, because the credit subsidy program (postponed to January 2025) will once again fuel price increases.
– It seems that for such people, it is a good time to buy an apartment. Firstly, there are many offers, as well as time to choose. Secondly, due to the recent lower demand, owners are more willing to negotiate, and developers are offering promotions – adds Bienkowski.
There will be plenty to choose from on the housing market
People looking for apartments have not been able to complain about the small number of ads on the secondary market lately. As indicated by Nieruchomosci-online.pl data, since the beginning of 2024 the number of ads has been growing month by month. The latest forecasts indicate that in the third quarter the choice of apartments will continue to expand.
This is particularly true for larger apartments – 59% of intermediaries taking part in the Nieruchomosci-online.pl sentiment survey expect the number of ads to increase. 29% of respondents predict that the current offer will remain the same, and only 12% that it will decrease.
In the case of studio apartments, the situation is as follows: 52% of agents are betting on an increase in the number of offers, 37% on stabilisation of supply, and only 11% on a reduction in the offer.
