The National Bank of Poland asked economists what’s next for the economy. Mixed enthusiasm

Adam Glapiński

Every quarter, the National Bank of Poland regularly asks economists for forecasts about what will happen in the economy. We don’t have good news for borrowers – interest rates will not drop in the coming months.

On Friday, the National Bank of Poland published the results of the periodic Macroeconomic Survey. This is a summary of economists’ forecasts about the future of the economy. Unfortunately, for borrowers, virtually none of the respondents see any room for interest rate cuts before the end of this year.

“In the next two years, experts expect a decline in the NBP reference rate: typical scenario ranges are between 4.84 percent and 5.70 percent for 2025 and between 3.43 percent and 5.18 percent for 2026. The central scenarios for these years are 5.37%, respectively. and 4.32 percent.” – we read in the information published by the National Bank of Poland. In other words, the greatest optimist among economists expects a reduction next year to 4.84 percent, or 0.91 percentage point. lower than currently. That’s still a lot.

Experts predict a decline in inflation in 2026

The surveyed economists are quite unanimous about the amount of average annual CPI inflation this year. “The central forecast for this year (…) is equal to 3.7 percent, while typical scenarios are in the range of 3.4-3.9 percent. In 2025, surveyed experts predict a temporary increase in inflation. For forecasts for this year, the limits of the 50 percent probability interval are 3.3 percent. and 5.5 percent, while the central forecast is 4.3 percent. In 2026, experts forecast a decline in inflation, with typical scenarios ranging between 2.2%. and 4.4 percent and the central forecast also 3.1%. – we read in the NBP announcement.

The bank also reported that the forecasts of the Macroeconomic Survey experts indicate a “stable registered unemployment rate” in the coming years at the level of approximately 5 percent, “with a clearly decreasing” annual growth rate of the average nominal gross salary. According to forecasts, the dynamics of nominal wages will decrease from 12.6%. in 2024 to 8.0 percent in 2025 and 6.6 percent in 2026

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