The MPC meeting is underway. Experts predict another reduction in interest rates

The November interest rate cut at the National Bank of Poland is most likely already a done deal – writes “Bankier.pl” today, wondering how deep the cuts will be by the Monetary Policy Council and how low the interest rate on the Polish zloty will fall in 2026.

A two-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Council began on Tuesday, after which the decision on the interest rates of the National Bank of Poland will be announced. Will the MPC decide on the fifth cut this year?

Alior Bank: “The Monetary Policy Council may decide to cut interest rates again”

As economists from Alior Bank note, preliminary, surprisingly good inflation data may determine the decision to cut interest rates again by the Monetary Policy Council in November.

– October data indicate a further slowdown in CPI inflation – the index amounted to 2.8%. y/y vs. 2.9 percent in September and August. This is the third month in a row when inflation remains below 3%, and the monthly dynamics amounted to only 0.1%. The reading indicates the potential for a slowdown in core inflation as well – we expect the reading for October to be around 3%. y/y – says Agata Filipowicz-Rybicka, chief economist and director of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Alior Bank.

According to the expert, in the light of these data and the recently normalizing trade tensions around the world, the Monetary Policy Council may decide to reduce interest rates again by 25 basis points – to 4.25%. for the reference rate.

– The ongoing economic recovery in Poland remains a risk for this scenario – in our opinion, GDP growth in the third quarter could reach 4%. y/y – adds Filipowicz-Rybicka.

As he notes, the slowly slowing wage growth and fiscal risks will also be important for the decision.

– Although some Council members signal caution, the positive surprise with October inflation and the lack of significant pro-inflation risks in the short term may tip the scales in favor of further easing of monetary policy – ​​he sums up.

PKO BP: “The Monetary Policy Council will decide to cut rates again by 25 bp”

– We assume that the Monetary Policy Council will decide to cut rates again by 25 bp. Lower-than-expected CPI inflation in October (2.8% y/y) additionally increased the likelihood of such a scenario – we read on the website of the PKO BP Analysis Center.

As the bank’s economists point out, given the high variability of rhetoric, the Council has recently shown sensitivity to current inflation readings. Data for October, apart from lower CPI inflation, also suggest progress in disinflation in core categories.

– We estimate that inflation excluding food and energy prices decreased to around 2.9-3.0%. y/y 3.2 percent y/y in September – add PKO BP analysts.

Santander: “Another cut has become slightly more likely”

Santander’s economists also agree with the reduction forecasts.

– CPI reading for October at 2.8%. y/y surprised us strongly on the downside and convinced us to revise our expectations regarding the Monetary Policy Council’s decision – we believe that another cut has become slightly more likely than a pause – say Santander experts quoted by “Bankier”.

Interest rate cuts in 2025

Let us recall that in October, the Monetary Policy Council reduced interest rates by 0.25 percentage points – it was the fourth decision of this type in 2025.

Interest rate changes so far this year are as follows:

• May 8 – reduction by 0.5 percentage points, to 5.25%,

• July 3 – reduction by 0.25 percentage points, to 5.00%,

• September 4 – reduction by 0.25 percentage points, to 4.75%,

• October 8 – reduction by 0.25 percentage points, to 4.50%.