The Monetary Policy Council has paused, but banks are already changing loans. POLSTR is involved

The Monetary Policy Council left the NBP rates unchanged, including the reference rate at 3.75%. As analysts of the RynekPierwotny.pl website point out, the decision does not give apartment buyers a new impulse in the form of cheaper money. At the same time, however, the mortgage market began a change more important than a single MPC meeting. The first bank replaced WIBOR with the POLSTR indicator in new housing loans.

After the meeting on September 8-9, the NBP reference rate is still 3.75%. The lombard rate remained at 4.25 percent, the deposit rate at 3.25 percent, the rediscount rate at 3.80 percent, and the discount rate at 3.85 percent. The reference rate has not changed since March 5, 2026.

This result was widely expected, so the announcement itself should not cause a sudden change in installments, creditworthiness or purchasing decisions. Many mortgage rates adjust according to a schedule written in the contract, and market rates also respond to expectations about the Council’s future moves. The lack of a reduction means, first of all, the lack of a new impulse from the central bank.

In the loan model, PLN 500,000 PLN for 25 years, with equal installments and an unchanged margin, the mechanical impact of the September decision of the Monetary Policy Council is therefore PLN 0. To show the scale: a rate reduction and a full translation of the indicator’s decline by 0.25 percentage points. would reduce the installment by approximately PLN 76 per month. However, there was no such move, and the actual interest rate depends on the value of the index adopted in accordance with the contract and the installment update date.

– The lack of a reduction will not disrupt the housing market, because banks and customers assumed such a scenario. However, it deprives autumn of the simplest boost. Apartment sales will now depend more on bank competition, income growth and the price of the premises themselves than on the next move of the Monetary Policy Council – comments Jarosław Jędrzyński, expert of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal.

Higher inflation strengthened the case for caution

The reason for the pause was primarily the return of higher inflation. According to the Central Statistical Office’s flash estimate, consumer prices increased by 3.4% in August. y/y 0.4 percent m/m. Inflation was above the NBP’s target of 2.5%, although it was still within the band of permissible deviations from 1.5 to 3.5%.

Today’s decision says less about installments in the coming days than about the pace of further changes. After earlier cuts, the Council gained time to assess the durability of the inflation increase. The tone of the conference of the President of the NBP scheduled for September 10 will now be important for borrowers. It may influence market expectations before the next meeting.

The first mortgages for POLSTR are already in the bank’s offer

The MPC’s decision coincided with the practical beginning of the end of WIBOR in new mortgages. From September 3, PKO Bank Polski and PKO Bank Hipoteczny are the first banks in the country to offer new housing loans with variable interest rates based on the POLSTR 1M Folded Rate. The change applies to new sales, and not to the automatic conversion of contracts already repaid according to WIBOR.

The reform of reference indices thus emerged from regulators’ documents and became part of the offer available to people buying an apartment. According to the KNF road map, from the beginning of 2027, WIBOR and WIBID should not, in principle, be used in new contracts and financial instruments. Subsequent banks have only a few months to change their systems and price lists.

It is this process that may be more important for borrowers than today’s lack of a reduction. The new indicator will change the way interest rates are updated, but the benefits for the customer will be determined by competition between banks.

POLSTR is lower, but the installment still depends on the margin

According to the latest publication of the WSE, Benchmark POLSTR 1M Folding Rate with the index date of September 9 was 3.55941%. The last available WIBOR values ​​from September 8 reached 3.84%. for 3M and 3.86 percent for 6M. The new indicator was therefore lower by approximately 0.28 and 0.30 percentage points, respectively. However, this difference is not an automatic discount for the customer.

The interest rate on a variable mortgage is the sum of the index and the bank’s margin. In the first PKO offer analyzed by Money.pl, the initial margin for the model loan was PLN 500,000. PLN for 25 years with a 20% own contribution was 2.59 percentage points. After adding the POLSTR value from September 9, the total interest rate would reach approximately 6.15 percent, and the purely model installment would equal approximately PLN 3,267 per month. The calculation does not take into account commissions, insurance or individual pricing conditions.

Comparing the abbreviations POLSTR and WIBOR alone may lead to confusion. The customer should compare the full interest rate, APR, commission, costs of additional products and the rules for updating the installment. A lower benchmark will only be a real benefit if the bank does not compensate for this difference with a higher margin.

– For a home buyer, the reform is not decided on the index administrator’s website, but in the bank information form. Today, POLSTR is lower than WIBOR, but the real test will be how much of this difference will remain in the client’s pocket – emphasizes Jarosław Jędrzyński.

POLSTR and WIBOR react differently to the MPC decisions

POLSTR is determined on the basis of actual overnight deposit transactions, i.e. loans concluded between financial institutions for one night. The PKO mortgage uses POLSTR 1M Folding Foot, which collects and submits rates for a period corresponding to one month. So it looks primarily at the cost of money already recorded in the market.

WIBOR 3M and 6M contain expectations regarding the future level of rates. They may fall before the MPC cut, if the market considers it likely, or rise before the increase. POLSTR 1M responds more gradually because older observations must be replaced with new ones.

The lack of change does not give these mechanisms a new impulse from the official NBP rate. WIBOR will continue to move with expectations for the coming months, and POLSTR will remain closer to the cost of short-term transactions. Two mortgages with the same margin may therefore react to future MPC decisions at a different pace.

Mortgage demand is growing despite the September pause

The MPC paused at a time when interest in financing housing remains clearly higher than a year ago. According to the latest BIK reading, the value of inquiries about housing loans increased by 9.3% in August. y/y per business day. The number of applicants was 7.0 percent higher. higher than a year ago, although compared to July it decreased by 14.4%. The average amount requested was PLN 525.7 thousand. PLN, i.e. by 7.2 percent. more y/y

July was even stronger in terms of loans actually granted. Banks and credit unions sold mortgages worth over PLN 14 billion, setting a monthly record. The number of loans granted increased by 33.1%. y/y, and their value by 45.3%. y/y. However, more than one third of the current action was refinancing, so the record result cannot be entirely attributed to apartment purchases.

The data does not show a collapse in demand, but shows it is gradually maturing after a previous rebound. The lack of a September cut limits the chance for a sharp acceleration, but does not reverse the effects of the earlier decline in the cost of credit and increase in wages. For developers, this is a scenario of sales stabilization, not a signal of a new boom caused by the Monetary Policy Council.

Old loans remain on WIBOR

The launch of the new PKO offer does not change the rules for repaying loans already based on WIBOR. The most important WIBOR 1M, 3M and 6M rates are to be published by December 31, 2036. A long period of orderly expiration will enable continued servicing of contracts concluded earlier.

Therefore, the holder of a WIBOR loan does not have to sign an annex due to the debut of mortgages on POLSTR. If the bank proposed a voluntary change to the formula, you would need to check the new indicator, margin, possible adjustment spread, frequency of interest rate updates and emergency rules.

The next impulse may come from bank price lists

The September decision of the Monetary Policy Council was predictable. It is much less obvious how banks will value the transition to POLSTR. PKO has made the first move, but the full picture will only appear after the publication of competitors’ offers. Then it will be possible to compare not only margins, but also the method of updating interest rates and the pace of reaction of products to future decisions of the Council.

– After the September pause, the burden shifts from the MPC meeting room to bank price lists. If competition allows customers to maintain lower POLSTR values, creditworthiness may improve even without another rate cut. If the difference is compensated by a margin, the reform will turn out to be mainly a technical change for buyers – says Jarosław Jędrzyński.

The most important question after the September meeting is not when the WIBOR abbreviation will disappear from mortgage advertisements. The question is whether the new loan structure will lower the total interest rate enough to support the demand for housing without the help of the Monetary Policy Council.

Author: Jarosław Jędrzyński, expert of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal