The increase in butter prices inhibits. Will it only be better?

The report “Price Index in retail stores” by UCE Research and the University of WSB Merito shows that the dynamics of butter’s price increase slightly inhibits. In July, product prices in stores went up by 17.3 percent. year to year, while a month earlier it was 20.3 percent. However, the jumps are still double -digit in an annual relationship.

– Continuous increases result from combinations of global and local factors. The main causes are reduced milk supply in world markets, increasing production costs and growing demand for dairy products – comments Dr. Rafał Parvi from the University of WSB Merito.

Butter prices. There will be no drastic increases?

The creators of the report forecast that this year prices in stores will increase one -digit. – In the fourth quarter of this year. It may fall to a single-digit level-within 6-9% yard. Of course, this scenario will work if there are no new supply disturbances or the costs of raw materials do not increase. Corrections will depend, among others from the level of competition between networks and the availability of subsidized own brands -comments Julita Pryzont from Hiper-Com Poland.

According to Dr. Krzysztof Łuczak from the Blix group, a slower rate of butter prices will depend on the stabilization or decrease in the costs of raw materials and energy. Drastic increases can inhibit competitive pressure between stores and the growing sensitivity of consumers to prices.

– Customers get used to certain price levels, and their tolerance for subsequent jumping increases decreases, which forces sellers to be more cautious. I predict that in the following months there will be rather one -digit year -on -year growth. I do not expect continuation of violent price jumps, because some inflation factors seem to slow down – sums up Łuczak.

Butter before Christmas for PLN 5?

In July, the standard cube of butter (200g) cost an average of PLN 7.87 in stores (average regular and promotional price). According to Julita Prismot, in the near future we can forecast that the price in the promotion will be at the level of approx. 6.60-6.90 PLN. However, regular can increase slightly to PLN 8.00-8.20, depending on the sales channel and the region. In turn, Dr. Rafał Parvi predicts that in August-December this year. The average price of butter cubes can be PLN 7.5-8.00, due to the seasonal increase in demand (including before Christmas) and persistent high production costs. In the pessimistic scenario, if the milk supply remains reduced and the energy costs increases, the average price may approach PLN 8.50-9.00 during periods of peak demand (e.g. in December).

– In the coming months, regular prices may increase up to PLN 9-11 per ak, especially in supermarkets, hypermarkets and Cash & Carry networks, where margins are higher and promotions are less frequent. However, promotional prices can be at the level of PLN 5-6, especially in discount stores. But before Christmas, butter in the promotion can cost up to PLN 4.50-5.50. Regular prices can then reach a ceiling of PLN 10-11 in some store formats – forecasts an expert from the University of WSB Merito.