The gray tobacco zone grows in strength. Budget in trouble
Poland loses EUR 312 million annually due to illegal tobacco trafficking. The legal market breaks down and the black market is growing at a record pace.
The illegal rotation of tobacco products in Poland is gaining momentum. According to the KPMG report, “gray tobacco zone in the EU and Poland in 2024”., As much as one in 25 cigarettes burned in Poland comes from illegal sources. At the end of 2024 it was every fifteenth cigarette. This is a sharp growth that results in serious losses for the state budget.
Gray zone
During the year, Poland’s budget losses due to the gray tobacco zone increased by as much as EUR 114 million, reaching a total of EUR 312 million. This gives an increase of almost 58 percent. compared to earlier year. This means that Poland is responsible for over 2 percent. all budget losses in this area throughout the European Union.
According to the report, Poland is in fourth place in the EU in terms of the number of illegal cigarettes in the market. In 2024 there were 1.85 billion, which means an increase of 350 million compared to 2023. More cigarettes from illegal sources were recorded only in France (18.7 billion), Greece (2.47 billion) and the Netherlands (1.91 billion).
The collapse of the legal market in Poland is equally alarming. In the first quarter of 2025, the sale of cigarettes dropped by 15.7 percent, tobacco for turning by 19.2 percent, and heated tobacco products by 18.75 percent. The authors of the report indicate that the reason is drastic excise tax increases from March 2025 – by up to 50 percent. In the case of tobacco for heating.
A problem throughout the Union
A gray zone is not only a problem of Poland. In the entire EU, budget losses in 2024 reached EUR 14.9 billion. Every eleventh cigarette smoked in the Union does not come from a legal source. France is leading in this statistics – 38 percent The market is illegal products.
The report indicates a strong relationship between the amount of excise duty and the size of the gray zone. Countries with the highest prices of cigarettes, such as France and Ireland, also have the largest share of illegal trade.
New challenges are the growing activity of smugglers on the web, as well as personnel deficiencies in the control services. In addition, the announced changes to the EU Excise Directive can still deepen the problem, especially in countries such as Poland, where tax increases would mean a huge price increase for consumers.
