The EU is preparing a new plan. Will Poland vote against?

On November 4 in Brussels, the environment ministers of the EU countries will attempt to set a new climate target for 2040. Despite adding several “safeguards” to the compromise project – including the revision clause requested by Poland – the result of the vote remains uncertain. Poland will be represented by Deputy Minister of Climate Krzysztof Bolesta. According to EU diplomats, on Friday there was still a qualified majority missing (at least 15 countries representing 65% of the EU population), but by the time of voting the document may be further “diluted”, which will potentially change the balance of power. The weekend amendments were intended to meet the expectations of Italy and France, especially in terms of increasing CO2 absorption and allowing the so-called carbon credits.

Reduction of emissions

The proposed goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90%. compared to 1990. It complements the existing framework: a decrease of 55%. by 2030 and achieving climate neutrality in 2050, when emissions are to be balanced by removals. The vote was originally planned for September, but was postponed due to reservations from many capitals. The matter first came to the EU summit on October 23, where leaders called for the target to be equipped with additional security mechanisms.

The key one is the review clause, which was sought by, among others, Poland. It is intended to allow the target to be changed if its implementation does not support the EU economy. Prime Minister Donald Tusk assessed that such a mechanism would make the new goal “less painful and safer also for Poland.” Since the summit in Brussels, work has been ongoing to adapt the draft amendment to the climate law to the leaders’ guidelines. Denmark, which holds the presidency, sent out another version of the compromise text on Sunday. The document clarifies that the European Commission, when reviewing the 2040 target, will have to take into account, among others: energy prices, global competitiveness, technological progress and the condition of industry in the Member States. The text also strengthens the EC’s obligation to attach statutory proposals to the report “where appropriate” – also regarding a possible revision of the intermediate goal – and to present such reports every two years.

Trading in allowances

The discussion also covers ETS2, i.e. the extension of emissions trading to transport and heating from 2027. The leaders called on the EC to present a revised ETS2 implementation framework; the Prime Minister stated that this may make it possible to block the system from entering into force. According to diplomats, Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra will at least repeat the actions announced by President Ursula von der Leyen to limit excessively high and volatile prices in ETS2 and “gradual and smooth” implementation.

Another point of contention is carbon credits, which would allow investments in green projects in third countries to be included in emission reductions. The Danish Presidency has proposed that in 2036 they will constitute 3%. entire effort, some countries want 5 percent The solution is controversial because the market for such loans practically does not exist, and allowing them could actually reduce the real ambition while formally maintaining the 90% threshold. The text also includes greater flexibility regarding CO2 absorption targets; France argued that the implementation of absorption technology on a mass scale was still uncertain, which is why a kind of emergency brake was introduced.

Today’s meeting takes place two days before the start of the COP30 climate summit in Brazil. Participants – including the EU – should come with an updated commitment to the Paris Agreement, which will require the unanimous agreement of member states. This one is also not certain. Nevertheless, EU decision-makers reject the thesis that Europe is withdrawing from its climate ambitions, pointing to lower commitments of other players and emphasizing that the EU has “no reason to be ashamed.”