The creditworthiness of Poles has dropped significantly. It hasn’t been this bad for a long time

After several months of improvement, the situation of people planning to buy a flat has clearly deteriorated. In August, average-earning households could borrow less than a month earlier, and the decline in creditworthiness affected all three groups of buyers analyzed. There has never been such a significant deterioration in the last 12 months – according to the analysis of BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl and Rankomat.pl.

The single lost the least. A person earning approximately PLN 6,000. PLN net per month, she could count on an average of 434.5 thousand. PLN housing loan with a periodically fixed interest rate. That’s 3 percent. less than in July.

A similar decline affected a childless couple with a combined income of PLN 8,000. PLN net. Its average creditworthiness decreased to PLN 540.1 thousand. zloty. However, households with children suffered the most. 2+1 family earning PLN 10,000 PLN net, she could borrow an average of PLN 599.4 thousand. PLN compared to PLN 631.9 thousand PLN a month earlier. This means a drop of as much as 5%.

– This was the first time in many months that the deterioration of the situation affected all analyzed groups of apartment buyers at the same time. In July, the creditworthiness of singles and childless couples was increasing, while the problems mainly concerned families with children, notes Marek Wielgo, an expert at the RynekPierwotny.pl portal.

Families are losing the most and have been doing so for months

In the case of families with a child, the August result is not a single fluctuation. Their creditworthiness has been decreasing for the fourth month in a row. During this time, it dropped from 675.8 thousand. PLN to less than 600 thousand. PLN, i.e. by 11 percent. Moreover, it is currently 3%. lower than the year before. For comparison, the creditworthiness of a single person is 3%. higher than a year ago, while in the case of a childless couple it remains at a level similar to last year.

According to experts from the RynekPierwotny.pl website, the deterioration of the situation is mainly due to changes in the financial market. Previously, further reductions in interest rates were expected, which contributed to an increase in creditworthiness. Recently, these expectations have clearly weakened.

– Just a few months ago, the financial market assumed further reductions in interest rates, which supported the improvement of creditworthiness. However, these expectations have recently waned. After a short period of improvement, market financing costs increased again, measured by, among others, quotations of treasury bonds and FRA and IRS contracts, and the interest rate on some mortgage loans began to exceed 6 percent again. That is why some banks adopted more cautious assumptions when assessing the creditworthiness of customers, explains Jan Dziekoński, chief economist of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal.

Fewer apartments within reach of singles

Lower creditworthiness almost immediately affected the number of apartments that remain within the financial reach of potential buyers. BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl data show that in August the offer available to singles decreased in all seven analyzed metropolises.

Buyers in Łódź and the cities of the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis still had the largest selection. Single with income of approximately PLN 6,000. PLN net and 20% own contribution, he could choose from approximately PLN 5.4 thousand, respectively. and 5.1 thousand developer apartments. In both cases, however, it was less than a month earlier.

Decreases were recorded in each of the analyzed cities:

• Warsaw: with 1.2 thousand up to 1 thousand apartments, i.e. by 16 percent,

• Kraków: from about 700 to about 400, i.e. by 39 percent,

• Łódź: from 6 thousand to 5.4 thousand, i.e. by 9 percent,

• Wrocław: with 1.4 thousand to 1.1 thousand, i.e. by 20 percent,

• Tricity: with 1.4 thousand to 1.2 thousand, i.e. by 10 percent,

• Upper Silesia-Zagłębie Metropolis: with 5.7 thousand to 5.1 thousand, i.e. by 10 percent,

• Poznań: with 2.2 thousand up to 1.8 thousand premises, i.e. by 18%.

– August’s data once again show how strongly the availability of apartments depends on creditworthiness. Its drop by a few percent was enough for hundreds of apartments to disappear from the budgets of singles, especially in cities where their offer was already limited – comments Marek Wielgo.

Couples also have less choice. Families lost the most

The deterioration of credit conditions also affected childless couples. In July, their creditworthiness increased slightly, but in August the number of apartments available within their financial capabilities decreased in all analyzed metropolises.

The largest selection was still waiting for couples in Łódź and the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis – approximately 7.6 thousand, respectively. and 7.5 thousand apartments. In Warsaw, the number of available premises decreased from 3.9 thousand. up to 3.8 thousand (-3%), in Krakow with 3.2 thousand up to 2.7 thousand (-13%), in Łódź with 8 thousand up to 7.6 thousand (-5%), in Wrocław with 3.8 thousand up to 3.4 thousand (-11%), and in the Tricity with 2.7 thousand. up to 2.5 thousand (-9%). In the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis, the offer decreased from 8,000. up to 7.5 thousand premises (-7%), and in Poznań from 4.2 thousand. up to 3.7 thousand (-10%).

However, families with children lost the most apartments. Even though they still have more places to choose from than singles and childless couples, their options have also clearly shrunk. The largest offer remained in the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis (8.5 thousand apartments), Łódź (8.3 thousand) and Warsaw (5.7 thousand).

In August, the number of apartments available for families dropped in Warsaw from 6.2 thousand. up to 5.7 thousand (-8%), in Krakow with 5,000. up to 4.2 thousand (-17%), in Łódź with 8.8 thousand up to 8.3 thousand (-6%), in Wrocław with 5.5 thousand up to 4.7 thousand (-14%), in the Tricity with 3.8 thousand up to 3.4 thousand (-10%), in the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis with 9,000. up to 8.5 thousand (-6%), and in Poznań with 5.3 thousand. up to 4.7 thousand (-12%).

How much can you really borrow?

The analysis takes into account three model households: a single person with an income of approximately PLN 6,000. PLN net per month, a childless couple earning a total of approximately PLN 8,000. PLN net and a 2+1 family with an income of approximately PLN 10,000. PLN net. In each case, a 20% own contribution and a mortgage loan with a periodically fixed interest rate were assumed.

Housing availability means the number of developer premises whose price was within the creditworthiness of a specific household. Average values ​​were calculated based on offers analyzed by Rankomat.pl.

However, this does not mean that every customer will receive exactly the same amount. The differences between banks are very large. In August, a single person could count on a loan of approximately PLN 371,000. PLN to nearly 498 thousand zloty. In the case of a 2+1 family with an income of PLN 10,000. PLN net it was from approximately 547 thousand. PLN to almost 699 thousand zloty.

– In practice, the most generous loan offer does not always turn out to be the most advantageous for the client. Banks willing to lend more money often compensate for the higher risk with higher loan costs. Therefore, when choosing financing, it is worth looking not only at the maximum loan amount, but also at its total cost – sums up Wielgo.