Surprising inflation data. We know what has gone up the most

On Thursday, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) presented the so-called quick estimate of consumer inflation. According to preliminary data, CPI inflation amounted to 4.6 percent this month. year to year, compared to 5 percent in October (it was the highest reading this year). Compared to the previous month, prices increased by 0.4%.

Inflation in Poland. What has become more expensive?

Data from the Central Statistical Office show that compared to November last year, the prices of energy carriers increased the most (an increase of 11.7% year-on-year). However, there is no change in the month-to-month relationship. In turn, the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 4.8%. per year and by 0.7 percent on a monthly basis.

The data on fuel prices for private means of transport are interesting. According to the Central Statistical Office data, they were 6% lower last month. compared to November 2023. On a monthly basis, there was an increase of 2.3%.

Marta Kightley, vice-president of the National Bank of Poland (NBP), spoke about inflation forecasts in a recent interview for RMF FM. The deputy head of the central bank recalled that the NBP had published two scenarios. The first one – assuming a complete unfreezing of energy – predicted an increase to 6.6 percent. In turn, the second scenario, in which energy prices are frozen, assumed an increase in inflation “slightly above 5 percent”. Last week, the government decided to freeze energy until September next year.

Inflation target in the second half of 2025?

– This is good news because we know more or less which of these scenarios will come true. We will probably be closer to this lower scenario, i.e. a little above 5%. – said Kightley, emphasizing that we do not know what will happen after September 2025.

– If this freezing continues, inflation will decline quarter by quarter and even in the second half of next year it should return to the NBP target – to the band of deviations. I would like to remind you that the NBP’s inflation target is 2.5%, plus or minus 1 percentage point, which means that inflation would return to approximately 3.5%. – in a scenario where the government maintains a complete price freeze – she added.

The Monetary Policy Council will base its decisions on a possible reduction in interest rates on the March inflation projection.