Students may have a problem. The market started surprisingly early

The holiday revival on the rental market has intensified this year. In July, owners listed more apartments than a month earlier, but tenants’ interest was even greater. As a result, the number of available premises has decreased significantly.

The analysis of the GetHome.pl portal, based on data from the Adradar classifieds search engine, shows that the rental market may have particularly intense weeks now.

In July, approximately 59,500 items disappeared from the market. apartments that have been rented or withdrawn from the offer. That’s as much as 21 percent. more than in June.

At the same time, about 55,000 appeared. new advertisements, i.e. by 17 percent more than a month earlier. The new supply was therefore not enough to compensate for the number of units leaving the market.

As a result, the total offer decreased from approximately 84,000. up to 79.5 thousand apartments.

– On the rental market, a revival in demand is a typical phenomenon, but this year its scale is exceptionally large. In July, the number of apartments disappearing from the market grew significantly faster than the number of new offers. As a result, the offer has shrunk the most in seven months – says Marek Wielgo, an expert at GetHome.pl.

Will students heat up the market even more?

An analysis of the GetHome.pl website shows that the greatest tenant activity usually occurs in the months preceding the start of the academic year. From June to September, not only students are looking for apartments. This is also the period when graduates start working in large cities, and some families and employees plan to move before the fall.

However, this year’s July stands out compared to previous years. According to Adradar data, the number of apartments rented or withdrawn from the market was the highest among all Julys included in the analysis from the last five years. This means that the rental market is entering a period of increased interest with a smaller pool of available premises.

The most visible changes occurred in several of the largest centers:

• in Warsaw, the number of offers dropped from approximately 15.5 thousand. up to 14.2 thousand (-8 percent),

• in Wrocław decreased from 6.3 thousand up to 5.9 thousand (-6 percent),

• in Krakow it dropped from 8,000. up to 7.9 thousand (-1%).

The situation was different in other cities. The offer increased in Gdańsk, Poznań and Katowice, while in Łódź it remained practically at the same level.

Apartments are still available, but the supply advantage is weakening

Despite the outflow of offers in July, the rental market has not yet found itself in a situation where tenants have problems finding an apartment. In most of the analyzed metropolises, the number of available premises is still higher than a year ago. A particularly large year-on-year increase in supply can be seen in Gdańsk (+36%), Kraków (+25%) and Wrocław (+13%).

At the same time, in Łódź and Poznań the offer is slightly smaller than a year ago. In the coming weeks, a lot will depend on whether owners will continue to introduce new apartments to the market at a pace that will meet the growing demand.

– Even after the July decline, the offer of apartments remains relatively large. Tenants still have a wide choice of premises, although the advantage of supply over demand has begun to decrease. If the high rental rate continues in August and September, available apartments may decrease faster than before – comments Marek Wielgo.

Rents are not out of control yet

For now, greater interest in apartments for rent does not mean a sharp increase in rates. In July, the median monthly rent increased, among others: in Warsaw – with 4.25 thousand up to 4.4 thousand PLN, in Poznań – from PLN 2.5 thousand. up to 2.6 thousand PLN, and in Wrocław – from PLN 2.75 thousand. up to 2.8 thousand zloty. In Łódź it increased from 2.1 thousand up to 2.2 thousand zloty. In Kraków and Gdańsk it remained at 3,000. PLN, and in Katowice it dropped to PLN 2,000. zloty.

Importantly, on an annual basis, median rents are currently lower or the same in all analyzed cities. The largest declines concern Warsaw and Gdańsk, where they amount to 6% each, and Katowice (-5%).

The GetHome.pl portal expert points out that the monthly change in the median does not necessarily mean price increases introduced by owners.

– An increase in the median rent in some cities does not necessarily mean that landlords have started to massively increase rental rates. The median is the middle value, i.e. half of the apartments on offer have lower rents and half have higher rents. If, under the influence of growing demand, the cheapest apartments disappear from the market first, the median automatically shifts up, even if the owners of the remaining apartments do not change their rates – explains Wielgo.

The coming weeks will be crucial. If in August and September apartments disappear from the market faster than new offers appear, the choice for tenants may become even more limited. Only then will it be possible to assess whether this year’s holiday revival will also translate into longer-lasting pressure on rent increases.