Start-up loan: fictitious analyzes and a compromise that no one admits to
A dozen or so days ago, the Minister of Development said about a breakthrough in coalition talks on loan subsidies. The coalition partners denied that they had heard of any compromise. Now another deputy minister refers to the analysis of the effects of the lack of subsidies. And again it’s disconcerting, because everything indicates that there is no such analysis.
Politicians of the ruling coalition constantly assure that a loan subsidy program will be launched. However, they do not indicate any specifics: neither the date nor the rules of subsidies (the Minister of Development and Technology solemnly assured that he would present the draft law in August). Such unsubstantiated announcements are very damaging to the real estate market because they introduce a huge amount of uncertainty. Some customers are putting off their purchase plans because they do not want to miss out on a possible support program. Developers limit their investment plans because they know that after the subsidy program is announced, interest in apartments will increase dramatically and they will be able to sell them for more attractive prices.
Will the lack of subsidies for loans explode the market? This is what the deputy minister is threatening
A few months ago, the government gave us all great waiting and uncertainty, which is clearly harmful. And he continues with this indolence.
One thing has not changed: Poland 2050 and the New Left consistently announce that they will not support subsidies for loans. However, they have their own ideas on how to improve the situation on the real estate market.
Recently, at a special meeting of the infrastructure committee, Deputy Minister of Development Jacek Tomczak convinced them to support the act. He argued that his ministry is able to present “very detailed analyzes” of what will happen next year if the loan program is not launched. He feared that the supply would decrease (i.e. few apartments would be released on the market), so prices would increase.
Since experts not connected with the government see subsidies as a threat, it is interesting which center links the price increase with the lack of subsidies. “Dziennik Gazeta Prawna” began to delve into the topic and asked about the analyzes cited by the politician.
“DGP” about an analysis that does not exist
“According to our findings, the Ministry of Energy and Technology did not commission external and independent research in this area. The thesis put forward by Jacek Tomczak is not confirmed by the study prepared by the Building Research Institute, which was referred to by the deputy minister in interviews,” informs “DGP”.
The newspaper asked Jan Dziekoński, a real estate expert from the FLTR analysis platform, for a comment. He noted that the ITB had actually issued an opinion commissioned by the ministry, but it concerned a completely different question. “It is difficult to draw any conclusions from the ITB letter regarding the introduction or non-introduction of the #naStart loan, because it concerns a completely different subject. It does not say anything about subsidy programs, it only refers to the prices of construction materials,” he said.
Coalition members deny giving the green light to the subsidies
There are more understatements about subsidies. Minister of Development Krzysztof Paszyk said two weeks ago that a compromise had been reached regarding subsidies. “There were some differences and the final adjustments are being made to the provisions of the laws that will introduce this program,” he said in response to a question.
This declaration surprised the coalition partners. Several politicians said they were not aware of any compromises. – I haven’t seen any new solutions. I maintain my position: no to subsidies for developers. Yes for social construction – commented Katarzyna Pałczyńska-Nałęcz, Minister of Funds and Regional Policy. She is one of the most visible opponents of subsidies: already in the summer she firmly said on behalf of Poland 2050 that there is and will not be consent to subsidies, because it is a program that is harmful to the economy.
Anna Maria Żukowska, chairwoman of the Coalition Parliamentary Club, also admitted that she was not aware of any breakthrough in the case.
Prices slowly started to stabilize
What does the real estate market look like today – almost 11 months after the expiration of the previous subsidy program and in the face of uncertainty as to its continuation in any form? Those who used to say that “the market will regulate itself” are right.
– The market is stabilizing and I hope that its recovery will take place in line with fundamental factors, without any fluctuations one way or the other, because I have the feeling that they are harmful – said Prof. in an interview with Interia. Adam Czerniak from SGH, co-author of the Housing Quarterly.
Lower interest from potential buyers contributed to a slowdown in the increase in average offer prices of apartments. According to the consulting company JLL, 30,000 have been sold since the beginning of the year. apartments, i.e. by 31 percent less than in the same period a year earlier. In the largest six cities, the supply of new apartments increased by 65%. on an annual basis, which increased the offer of apartments to 52,000. premises.
This trend is confirmed by data published in the latest quarterly of Mieszkaniowe Otodom and Polityka Insight. The authors note that the last time this level of offer availability occurred was a decade ago, when the Polish real estate sector was emerging from a period of slowdown.
