Stable foundations give hope, despite growing uncertainty

The concept of “path developer” has already become deeply embedded in the public debate. Undoubtedly, a number of publications and discussions devoted to the ways in which the development industry operates have given it bad PR. This image problem of the industry is also confirmed by research. The Monitoring of Real Estate Customers’ Sentiment (MNKN) carried out by the Otodom portal shows that every sixth respondent has a positive opinion about the activities of development companies, while every third Pole gives a negative assessment of the industry.

Developers are most often accused of building investments with very small areas, using every centimeter of land, which translates into creating too dense buildings and a shortage of greenery and space for services around the investment. The problems of the rental market also have an impact, and the industry is also affected by the phenomenon of flipping. Although image problems undoubtedly also affect honest, reliable and standards-compliant developers, they are not the biggest problem the industry is struggling with today.

Despite the war, prices are up

An investor who needs to meet his own housing needs must buy anyway. Evidence of strong demand is the constant increase in real estate prices, especially in large cities – NBP data shows that over the last decade the price of a square meter of housing has doubled, reaching the level of PLN 14,400 in the seven largest Polish agglomerations. PLN per square meter.

However, the situation in housing does not tell everything about the industry. Because it clearly shows a cooling of moods. In recent years, the share of buyers with the intention of renting or reselling at a profit has decreased significantly – at the current level of interest rates, the housing market is not a very tempting option for investing capital.

Recently, the outbreak of the Iran war had a significant impact on the market, which stopped the cycle of interest rate cuts. “The war in Iran broke out at a time when the housing market was starting to regain energy after a period of high interest rates and poor credit availability,” we read in a report by PKO Bank Polski.

According to the bank’s analysts, as a result of the Iran war, the construction market has become less predictable. The prices of plastics made from petroleum products increased the most and the fastest. The increase in their prices resulted in an increase in the prices of plastic products, and the construction industry accounts for approximately 25 percent of this industry’s production. Prices, and therefore material costs, were also affected by higher logistics prices during this period.

However, interestingly, the conflict in Iran did not significantly affect the buyers themselves – they acted differently than in the case of the war in Ukraine in 2022. This time, they accelerated some of their purchasing decisions, because they were most likely influenced by the fear of price increases. Many potential borrowers may have concluded that it is better to buy an apartment a few months earlier than a few months too late.

But the mood of uncertainty remains – every disruption in maritime transport, increase in freight rates or extension of delivery times increases the final cost of the development project. And the plastics used by developers, such as granules, semi-finished products or chemical additives, are a global product, they “travel” across continents and may cause price increases. This creates a mood of uncertainty.

Uncertainty and cooling of moods – from hotels to offices

Developers are also concerned about rising energy costs, problems with employee availability and the difficulty in predicting demand in the coming years due to the difficult geopolitical situation in the world. According to experts, the fate of investments is increasingly determined by risk calculation. Investors are becoming more and more cautious. As a result, developers are increasingly focusing on smaller projects and in the best locations, which provide them with greater sales certainty. The cooling is most noticeable in the warehouse and office markets.

During the pandemic, warehouse developers often commissioned construction projects for speculative purposes. Today we can see the effects of this. “At the end of 2025, the monitored resources of modern warehouse space in Poland exceeded 36.1 million m², of which almost 7.2 million m² accounted for the largest market – Masovia with Warsaw. The resources of modern warehouse space in the five dominant markets increased year on year by slightly over 1.5 million m², which means a result clearly lower than the average for 2021-2024, which amounted to 2.48 million m²,” we read in one of the reports of the Real Estate Analysis Office of the Economic Analysis Department of PKO Bank Polski.

The challenge on the office market is the change in the work model towards remote work and greater selectivity of tenants. There is also long-term talk about the impact of AI on this market. In the next few years, artificial intelligence will automate simple office activities, which does not bode well for employees returning to offices.

The expected so-called new supply of office properties in 2026 is approximately 190,000. m², and next year only approx. 140 thousand. m². With current trends in closing buildings from use, this may result in further erosion of office resources. According to PKO Bank Polski experts, it cannot be ruled out that office resources reached their historical maximum in the second quarter of last year.

Therefore, this market will face both a decline in investment and an increase in the number of vacancies. In turn, in the hotel and tourism sector, according to data from Kompas Inwestycji, the value of suspended projects outweighs new ones already… twice, while a few years ago these proportions were much more balanced.

Developers’ caution is also visible in land purchases. In 2025, 46% of developers purchased land for residential projects – less than in the previous three years (49% in 2024, 51% in 2023, 53% in 2022). Again, the uncertainty related to the large oversupply of apartments in 2025, which was the result of the collapse in apartment sales in 2024, plays an important role. However, what pleases the industry is the fact that restrictions on land purchases are not so visible in large companies. These usually have supplies for 3-4 years.

A cautious approach, but stable foundations

Despite great caution and uncertainty in the industry, it is clear that it has become an expression of market stability, where you can still make good money.

The Polish market is overwhelmingly in Polish hands, which increases the sector’s resistance to economic fluctuations. Local companies are more likely to focus on gradually expanding their land bank, reinvesting profits and maintaining liquidity, which stabilizes supply. Unlike Western Europe, where international capital groups dominate, focused on quick profits and “exit”, Poland is dominated by family businesses that have been gradually developed over decades and do not behave nervously. Moreover, they have been building land capital and their local know-how for years – so they can quickly adapt to new regulations.

According to the Credit Information Bureau, in May this year the value of housing loans granted again amounted to over PLN 13 billion. The average amount of a housing loan granted reached PLN 505.5 thousand. zloty. PLN, which is the historically highest value.

Investments, fashionable Poland, housing shortage

What gives the industry hope today? When it comes to the warehouse industry, the fact that Poland, thanks to large infrastructure investments, can increase its role as a European transport hub. At the end of 2025, the resources of modern warehouse space in Poland per capita were close to 1 m². For comparison, in Europe’s leading German market this figure is just over 1.2 m² per person. Before the pandemic, resources in Poland were less than 50% of the level recorded in Germany, which shows the scale we have made up for in recent years. Despite dynamic growth, Poland still remains below the most saturated European markets. This shows that the “ceiling” in this part of the industry may not have been reached yet.

The hotel industry, in turn, talks about the tourist boom in Europe to the undiscovered and dynamically developing Poland. Even in the office industry, the situation is not so bad – you can count on rent price increases in large cities, and they are clearly visible in Warsaw. The housing sector counts on the ongoing migration of residents to cities, and it also shows the constantly growing purchases of premises by foreigners. According to data from the Ministry of Interior and Administration, in 2025 foreigners bought over 17.7 thousand in Poland. apartments, i.e. by 2%. more than a year earlier. Over the last 10 years, the number of such transactions has increased fivefold.

If we look at changes in net prices of land for multi-family housing, we also see that the trend of price increases – although it has slowed down – is still going well. Developers still remember to maintain land banks – for example, the Archicom group purchased land worth approximately PLN 480 million in 2025, the Echo Investment group maintains a land bank that secures its operations for approximately 3-5 years, and the Atal capital group allocated PLN 124.3 million for the purchase of new land last year.

The new regulations are not that scary

There is no indication that developers will not get away with the upcoming new regulations. The upcoming amendment to the Development Act is intended to deprive developers of many opportunities they have been using for years. This includes: o blocking developers from freely withdrawing from the contract and increasing prices, as well as preventing them from quickly closing down their companies after the investment is completed.

For example, the project limits the possibility of withdrawing from the contract to only two situations, when the buyer does not pay despite a written request with a 30-day deadline for payment, and to another, when the buyer does not show up to accept the premises or sign a notarial deed. The developer’s information obligations are also to be extended. Projections of the premises with room dimensions will have to be published on the investment’s website.

Will these changes slow down price increases? The slowdown effect has already been mentioned, with the announcement of the introduction of the obligation to provide information about apartment prices on developers’ websites and to disclose real transaction prices.

Transaction prices are already published, for example, on portals such as developeruch.pl, and prices – although slower – are still rising. Perhaps regulations in the area of ​​spatial planning will have a greater impact on the market, because they will reduce the availability of land for development or regulations related to the so-called Shelter Act, which may translate into increases in the costs of building new apartments.

But it is worth keeping in mind that the development industry built its strength decades ago. And it built – not virtual, but real power. The share of Polish companies in the development industry today accounts for ¾ of the market. Developers plan their activities several years in advance, as demonstrated by the collapse in the loan market two years ago. Nobody hears about spectacular bankruptcies of developers.