Senior revolution in housing. This will upend the secondary market

Will Polish urban centers turn into Polish old age centers? It sounds scary, a little unbelievable, and maybe even like a movie script about the future. Meanwhile, experts from the RynekPierwotny.pl website have analyzed demographic data and indicate that the problem of population aging does not only concern small towns far from the metropolis.

– Society aging is most strongly associated with peripheral rural areas. It turns out that this is too simplified a picture of the situation, says Arkadiusz Słodkowski from the RynekPierwotny.pl website.

This is not only a problem for Podlasie

When we talk about rapidly aging Poland, the first associations often come to mind are small communes in the east of the country. Indeed, this is where you can find towns with an exceptionally high share of seniors. This does not mean, however, that cities remain outside this process.

On the contrary. Most Poles who are at least 65 years old live in cities. These are largely people who arrived there several dozen years ago, during a period of very rapid urbanization. Just look at the change in the share of urban residents in the total population: in 1965 it was about 50 percent, and in 1985 already 60 percent.

The generation that moved en masse to cities in the times of the Polish People’s Republic is now of retirement age. This, in turn, may have consequences not only for demography, but also for the housing market.

– Now, many of the participants of the urbanization boom from the times of the Polish People’s Republic are already seniors. This situation, like other demographic changes, will affect the housing market, generating a flood of offers on the secondary market – says Arkadiusz Słodkowski from the RynekPierwotny.pl portal.

Suburban communes gain, older cities lose

The most advanced aging is actually visible in some municipalities of eastern Poland, especially in Podlasie and the Lublin region. In Kleszczele, Orla, Czyże and Dubicze Cerkiewne, people aged at least 65 constituted over 30% in 2024. inhabitants.

At the same time, the share of seniors exceeds 20-21%. is not exclusively the domain of small, poorly urbanized communes. Some cities also have a significantly older population than their immediate surroundings.

A good example is Konin. In 2024, people aged 65 or over accounted for 26.5%. inhabitants. Meanwhile, in neighboring communes, the share of seniors was clearly lower and remained below 20%.

Why such a difference? According to experts from the RynekPierwotny.pl portal, one of the reasons may be the outflow of younger residents to larger cities and the relocation of some people to suburban towns. As a result, a smaller or medium-sized city may, over time, end up with a higher share of older residents than its surrounding municipalities.

Sometimes migration hits a city twice

This mechanism may work on both sides. First, young people go to larger centers where it is easier to find an attractive job. However, those who stay do not always choose the city itself as a place for life.

– A large group of young residents are moving to larger centers tempting with a more attractive labor market. However, among the remaining younger people, some choose suburban communes as a place of permanent residence – often preceded by the construction of their own “four corners”. As a result, the demographically oldest commune in a given area may be a small or medium-sized city – experts from the RynekPierwotny.pl website note in their analysis.

This phenomenon is visible, among others, near Stalowa Wola, Gniezno, Piła, Ostrołęka and Konin. Younger residents migrate either to larger cities or to their outskirts. For those remaining in the center, this means a gradual shift in the age structure towards older age groups.

Similar differences can be seen even within the largest cities. In Warsaw, people aged 65 or over accounted for 20.1% in 2024. population. But the average for the entire capital hides huge differences between districts. In Śródmieście, the share of seniors was 26.1 percent, while in Białołęka it was 10.6 percent and in Wilanów 11.2 percent.

Experts draw attention to the problem of registration data. In the largest cities, the actual number of inhabitants may be higher than that resulting from official statistics, including: due to people renting apartments and not registered in their place of actual residence. This may also affect calculations of the average age of residents.

Aging also brings new housing problems

The scale of changes is large. Currently, over 5 million people aged 65 or over live in Polish cities. By the middle of the next decade, this number may reach approximately 5.4–5.5 million.

An aging population will pose similar challenges for both cities and rural areas. Among other things, affordable care services and efficient local health care will be needed. In the case of apartments, however, the problems will not be the same everywhere.

In rural areas, older residents may be more likely to struggle with the costly heating and maintenance of large homes that become too large for their needs once children move out. In cities, however, the problem may be something much more mundane: the lack of an elevator.

In older blocks and tenement houses there are still apartments on the upper floors, which can only be accessed by stairs. For a young, fit resident, this does not have to be a major problem. The situation changes with age. As experts note, there are already cases where an elderly person decides to sell their apartment primarily because there is no elevator in the building.

Demography may therefore increasingly have an impact on the real estate market. It is not only about how many apartments will be needed, but also about what they should look like, where they should be located and whether they will be adapted to the needs of aging residents.