Selling for the patient. Waiting for the government to move is not conducive to quick transactions

In the second half of 2023, apartments were sold almost immediately, and this applied to both developer and secondary market properties. This was related to the “Safe 2% Credit” subsidy program. Although it was announced at the time of its introduction that it would be extended for subsequent quarters, at the same time the pool of money earmarked for subsidies was shrinking so quickly that sellers and buyers felt subconsciously that the program’s days were numbered. And so it happened: in early December 2023, more banks began to announce that they would no longer accept applications, and later the new government confirmed that it would not continue the program.

Apartment sales have slowed down

In 2024, sales slowed down. At the same time, more and more apartments are entering the market. In April and March, companies introduced significantly more apartments to their offer than they sold – in April, it was almost 6,000 apartments, 9% less than in March. As a result, at the end of April, there were 45.4 thousand apartments on offer in the seven largest cities, 6% more month-on-month and 13% more year-on-year – reported “Rzeczpospolita” a few weeks ago.

The newspaper also noted that the situation in individual cities is very diverse. In Krakow and Poznan, sales fell by more than 20 percent in April compared to March. In Warsaw, it fell by 3 percent, while in Wroclaw, an increase of 33 percent was recorded.

In turn, in Warsaw and Wrocław, an increase of around 50% in the number of premises introduced to the offer was recorded.

How long does it take to find a buyer for an apartment?

Nieruchomosci-online.pl conducted a study aimed at determining how long it takes to sell apartments on the secondary market. In the case of studio apartments, the largest number of respondents answered that finding a buyer currently takes longer than in 2023 – 45% of respondents share this opinion. 38% of them claim that there has been no major change. However, the extension of the sales time is more often felt in the case of larger apartments – 69% of agents have such experiences. 20% do not see any difference. The group of agents who felt that offers of studio apartments or larger apartments are now disappearing from the offer faster than last year is small.

Studio apartments are most often sold within 1 to 3 months (according to 49% of surveyed agents) and 3 to 6 months (26%). Larger apartments, on the other hand, are sold within 3 to 6 months (50%). In this case, the transaction time of 1 to 3 months was indicated less frequently (31%).

– From the seller’s perspective, 2023 was a very good time, but from the buyer’s perspective, it was not. A person looking for a property, with a narrow offer, did not have time to think: they either bought almost immediately or not. As a result, many people bought apartments that did not fully meet their needs. In 2024, the situation was reversed, among other things because there is no steroid in the form of a government support program. As a result, sellers have to fight harder for the customer, and buyers have gained more time to make the right choice – adds Bienkowski.

Less interest in mortgage loans

The lack of a support program combined with the persistently high prices of apartments and the increasing competition of offers (the number of advertisements has been systematically growing since the beginning of the year) has caused the demand for apartments to slow down. This is also confirmed by information coming from the credit market.

According to data from the Credit Information Bureau, 30.6 thousand potential borrowers applied for a housing loan in July 2024, compared to 43.4 thousand a year earlier. As expected, demand for loans fell after the end of accepting applications under BK2%. – Despite concerns, interest in housing loans has not fallen to the level from before the launch of the program and is currently about 1/3 lower than in July last year – informs BIK.

Selling a home often takes up to a year

In the case of single-family homes, the majority of real estate agents responded that finding a buyer takes longer than in 2023 – 57% of respondents share this opinion. 32% believe that there has been no change, and 11% believe that listings are disappearing from the offer even faster.

According to the Nieruchomosci-online.pl sentiment survey, houses are most often sold within 6 months to 1 year (confirmed by 45% of respondents) and 3 to 6 months (27%). Transactions lasting over a year were indicated by 20% of intermediaries.

In the category of building plots, opinions about the extension of the sale time also prevailed, but not as clearly: 48% of people felt the time was extended, 40% the time was maintained, and 12% the time was shortened. The sale of land usually takes from 6 months to 1 year (42% of respondents) and from 3 to 6 months (32%).

What about the “Startup Loan”?

Last Wednesday, Minister of Development and Technology Krzysztof Paszyk announced on TVP Info that work is underway on a new form of support for apartment buyers. In his opinion, the entire proposal will be available in a few days. Asked when the final draft of the bill will be ready, he replied that “it’s a matter of August.”

This is a proposal that does not have support even in the ruling coalition. Reservations have been raised by the ministries of: family, finance, funds, climate, justice, as well as the National Bank of Poland.

“Unfortunately, I express concerns that the solutions proposed in the act, instead of contributing to improving the availability of housing, may lead to an even greater crisis on the housing market. A further increase in property prices, which is a probable effect of the proposed regulations, will result in even lower availability of housing on the real estate market due to the need for consumers to obtain greater creditworthiness,” assesses the Ministry of Family, Labor and Social Policy.

Who will be the real beneficiary of the subsidy program?

The Ministry warns that the main beneficiaries of the proposed solutions will be developers “who have already benefited greatly from the existing solutions.”

The Left has been critical of the idea of ​​returning to subsidies from the very beginning. Its politicians point out that last year’s program boosted real estate prices – in large cities they rose by at least 15 percent in a year, and in Krakow the increase even exceeded 20 percent.

In addition, the Left remains a supporter of building municipal and TBS housing. Although there was information recently that one of the elements of the housing program is to be an injection of money for local governments to build cheaper apartments, we do not know any specifics. Whether these would be apartments for rent or for ownership, how much money would go to the municipalities for this purpose – silence around this. One may get the impression that this information “came out” from the Ministry of Development only to placate the Left.