Prices for new homes continue to rise. When will this madness end?

In the second quarter of 2024, there was a drop in demand for new apartments, which prompted developers to limit their supply. Despite this, the offer of apartments continued to grow, and the prices of new premises increased. In cities such as the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis, Łódź and Warsaw, apartment sales fell by 42%, 35% and 26%, respectively. However, in Wrocław and the Tri-City, sales increased by 7% and 5%, respectively.

Credit and housing prices

The “Safe Credit 2%” program has ended, which has contributed to a decrease in the number of housing loans granted. Banks have noted a decrease in the number of loan applications, which has affected the real estate market. The planned “Housing Credit for #Start” program is supposed to support borrowers, but its future is in question.

Wrocław and Łódź stand out from other cities in terms of the increase in housing supply. In Wrocław, the supply increased by 41%, and in Łódź by 17%. In other metropolises, such as Poznań, the Upper Silesian-Zagłębie Metropolis and the Tri-City, significant declines in new housing supply were recorded.

Prices of apartments in Poland’s largest cities are rising, which is partly due to rising construction costs. Despite this, some developers are introducing deferred payment systems to mitigate the impact of high mortgage costs on buyers. In some cities, such as Warsaw and Wrocław, luxury apartments have been introduced for sale, which has led to an increase in average prices per square meter.

Experts note that despite rising construction costs, there is a chance of stabilizing average apartment prices thanks to the “Mortgage Loan for #Start” program. The increase in the number of apartments in the popular segment may contribute to slowing down price growth. In Krakow and the Tri-City, average prices per square meter remained at the May level, while in Poznań they fell by 1 percent.

The first half of 2024 on the primary housing market in Poland was full of challenges. Reduced demand, rising prices and uncertainty about the future of credit programs affected the situation of developers and buyers. Despite this, there is some hope for price stabilization, especially in the popular segment. Apartment buyers should closely monitor market developments to be able to take advantage of the potential benefits resulting from possible price stabilization.

Prices on the secondary market are falling

As it results from the analysis of prices of secondary market apartments put up for sale in June this year, the average offer prices of apartments in most of the largest Polish cities have fallen in the last month. The largest – by over 1 percent – ​​average prices fell in Szczecin, Bydgoszcz and Poznań. The same – in percentage terms – decreases of 0.6 percent were recorded in four cities: Warsaw, Kraków, Lublin and Olsztyn. Minimal but still price drops also occurred in Łódź, Wrocław and Katowice.