Polish villages and cities are becoming depopulated. Even immigrants are not helping

Polish villages and cities are becoming depopulated. Even immigrants are not helping

Poland faces a serious demographic challenge. Although immigration levels are rising, they are not able to offset the falling birth rate and the overall population decline. The villages and less attractive cities will be the most depopulated.

Since 2016, the net migration rate for permanent residence in Poland has been growing, meaning that more people are coming to the country than leaving it. Foreigners are increasingly entering the country’s social security system, and their number has reached almost 1.4 million. However, the influx of migrants does not compensate for the drastic drop in the number of births – in the first quarter of 2024, only 64.5 thousand children were born, which is the lowest fertility rate in Poland’s history.

Poland has a demographic problem

Professor Elżbieta Gołata, Chair of the Demographic Sciences Committee of the Polish Academy of Sciences, notes that life expectancy in Poland has increased, but changes in education and the perception of the role of women have led to a decrease in the birth rate. As a result, Poland’s population is aging – the number of people aged 60 and over at the end of 2022 amounted to 9.8 million, which constituted almost 26 percent of the entire population. Forecasts indicate that by 2040, every third Pole will be 60 or older, and by 2060 as many as four in ten.

Since 2012, the population of Poland has been systematically decreasing, with the exception of 2017. Natural increase remains negative, and the country’s population at the end of the first quarter of 2024 was just over 37.5 million people. Over the decade, Poland lost around 2-2.5 million citizens who settled abroad, which additionally affected the decline in the birth rate and the number of workers.

Data from the Central Statistical Office show that the number of Poles staying abroad for more than 12 months fell to around 1.5 million in 2020–2022. Despite the growing number of immigrants from eastern countries (including Belarus, Ukraine, Armenia), the positive migration balance does not compensate for the lower number of births.

The number of foreigners covered by pension and disability insurance increased from 184.2 thousand in December 2015 to 1,127.7 thousand in December 2023. The largest increase was recorded among citizens of Belarus and Ukraine. Despite this, Professor Gołata claims that immigration only temporarily alleviates the demographic problem, but is not able to compensate for the decreasing number of births.

The Central Statistical Office forecasts predict a systematic decline in Poland’s population. By 2060, the population may fall to 26.7 million, which would mean a decrease of 8–29 percent compared to 2022. The working-age population will also shrink, and the number of people of post-working age per 1 thousand people of working age will increase from 390 in 2023 to 839 in 2080.

Society is aging

The ageing of the population is also accelerating due to internal mobility of the population. Only a few large cities, such as Warsaw or Krakow, are increasing their population thanks to favorable migration. Smaller towns and villages have difficulty attracting and retaining young people, who, after completing their studies, leave for larger centers in search of better professional and life prospects.

Suburbanization, or the process of people settling in the suburbs of large cities, is also progressing. Smaller towns around the largest agglomerations are currently home to 30–50 percent of the population of these cities. According to the Central Statistical Office, this process will intensify until 2060.

Poland is therefore facing a demographic challenge that requires effective actions to halt population decline and improve living conditions and career prospects both in large cities and in rural areas.

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