Polish scientists will create a digital twin of the Baltic Sea

The MERMAID project aims to help in safer planning of activities at sea – from navigation and port operations, to environmental protection and responding to threats. The project leader is prof. Ph.D. Piotr Gwiazda from the Institute of Mathematics of the Polish Academy of Sciences and the Interdisciplinary Center for Mathematical and Computer Modeling at the University of Warsaw.

The digital twin of the Baltic Sea will be an advanced computer model that will reproduce the conditions at sea as accurately as possible, including: water and air temperature, wind strength and direction, pressure, wave height, wave direction and sea currents.

– The system will anticipate the development of the situation and thus support decisions made by people operating at sea – explains prof. Piotr Gwiazda, project leader.

The forecasting tool will answer practical questions: what conditions will prevail in a few or several dozen hours, whether it will be possible for the vessel to safely enter the port, when to plan maintenance work at sea or in which direction pollution may move.

– Measurements at sea are very expensive and point-based in nature. The numerical model allows you to process this scattered data into a coherent picture and predict further actions – explains prof. Star.

The Baltic Sea needs a dedicated model

The MERMAID project responds to the growing importance of the Baltic Sea for the Polish economy and security. The sea can be a difficult working environment for most of the year. In autumn, winter and spring, weather windows allowing safe maritime operations may be very short.

This is particularly important in the Polish part of the Baltic Sea.

– Our coast consists largely of sandy beaches, long stretches without large ports and relatively difficult operating conditions. This means that we need a model dedicated to this area – emphasizes prof. Star.

Safer shipping, ports and offshore energy

One of the most important applications of the Baltic digital twin will be to support operational decisions. This becomes important in the context of the development of offshore wind farms, LNG terminals, service ports and planned investments related to nuclear energy.

– More and more infrastructure is being built in the Baltic Sea, which does not operate only in summer and in good weather. If something needs to be serviced in winter, the decision to go out to sea must be based on very good information about the conditions – says the project leader.

The system is intended to support, among others: ships entering ports, departures of service vessels to wind farms, operation of dredgers and operation of coastal infrastructure. It is not only about the efficiency of operations, but also about reducing the risk to people, equipment and infrastructure.

– The most dangerous moments in navigation often occur near the shore, where the water is shallower and local conditions quickly become difficult for vessels. The most reliable information about safe time windows for the maneuver is crucial – explains prof. Star.

Environmental protection and responding to threats

MERMAID is also important for environmental protection. A digital twin can support the analysis of processes that are difficult to directly observe: transport of pollutants, changes in water temperature, movement of water masses or conditions favoring cyanobacterial blooms. The system can also be useful in emergency situations. In the event of a ship breakdown, oil spill or other contamination, it is crucial to quickly determine in which direction the contaminated water will move and which areas may be at risk.

Supercomputers, data and modeling

The biggest scientific challenge of the project will be to combine the atmosphere model with the sea model and integrate many data sources. The project will benefit from the achievements of ICM UW, which has been developing numerical weather forecasts for many years.

– Since measurements at sea are limited, data assimilation methods that allow observations to be combined with model calculations are crucial – explains the scientist.

Calculations will be carried out using high-power infrastructure. This is important not only for the quality of the model, but above all for its operability: the forecast must be created faster than the phenomenon it concerns.

One of the goals of the project is to create a system that will operate continuously and be useful to recipients. The data generated by the digital twin will be made available through various channels, including API, which will allow users to download and integrate it with their own systems. The model results will be able to be processed in terms of the needs of e.g. maritime administration, wind farm operators, ports or vessels.

From prototype to forecasting services

The project is implemented by a consortium composed of the University of Warsaw, the Institute of Oceanology of the Polish Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Water Engineering of the Polish Academy of Sciences. The implementation is expected to take three years. During this time, scientists plan to develop models, test them, calibrate them, and prepare tools and services for future users. At the same time, the digital twin of the Baltic Sea will be developed gradually.

– This type of system is not built once and for all. You can create a platform and basic services, but it will take years to calibrate, improve and adapt them to new data and user needs – sums up prof. Piotr Gwiazda.

The MERMAID project shows how advanced mathematical modeling, supercomputers and cooperation between science and economy can translate into specific tools that increase the safety, efficiency and responsible management of the Baltic Sea resources.