Polish housing market over the abyss? Disturbing data from the market

The Central Statistical Office (GUS) published preliminary data on housing construction for June and the first half of this year. This information shows that investors invest less and less in new buildings. Experts from the RynekPierwotny.pl portal note that within the average date, the main indicators of housing construction are falling and approaching the lowest values in history.

-The decreasing trend of CSO statistics of housing buildings has become further deepened in June, which may already raise concerns about the risk of refraction of the investment boom of the original segment of the home resident-notes Jarosław Jędrzyński, an expert of the Rynekpierwotny.pl portal.

He adds that again developers are leading in the process of inhibiting investment activity, but this time investors building for their own needs are quite clear.

– The most important data from the point of view of the current economic condition, i.e. apartments, which began construction began. It seems that the fears of the builders of apartments about the development prospects of new apartments in a predictable perspective – says the expert.

Housing construction in June

Last month, investors began building less than 16 thousand. apartments, which means a 25 % decrease Compared to June last year and by 17 percent compared to May 2025. Developers had a particularly poor result – only 8.8 thousand. new apartments, which is one of their weakest results since mid -2023.

In the first half of 2025, a construction of about 111 thousand was launched in Poland. apartments and houses, which is almost 10 percent. A decline compared to the same period a year earlier. Developers have started building 68,000 premises, i.e. by 15 percent less than a year ago. Experts of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal emphasize that these results testify to the clear inhibition of investments in the primary housing market.

This is also confirmed by the Big Data RynekPierwotny.pl data, which show that in the second quarter of 2025 the number of apartments introduced for sale by developers in the 7 largest markets fell by 12 percent. compared to the previous quarter.

In June, fewer building permits

Individual investors in the first half of the year achieved a result by 6 percent. better than a year ago. On the other hand, the number of building permits issued to developers was less than 76 thousand, i.e. fell by over 25 percent. This is largely the result of the poor June, when the developers obtained only 11 thousand. permits – by 13 percent less than in May and 35 percent less than a year ago.

According to the expert, such low results are one of the weakest permits for developers in history. The long-term decrease in these permits increases the risk of apartments deficiency in 2026-2027, especially if subsequent interest rate reductions increase demand.

-Unfortunately, GUS GUS data on new building permits or reports with a construction project look little better, although in this case a negative six-month result is only the work of developers. In total, in June, under all forms of construction, less than 19 thousand were obtained. administrative decisions, which means a 9 % decrease relative to this year’s May and regress of over 23 percent in relation to year to year. However, from the beginning of the year, investors obtained 121,000 with a mountain. permits, which means a worse result in relation to the same period of last year by 16 percent. – says Jarosław Jędrzyński.

June housing investment market

The image of the housing investment market in Poland is not improved by the volumes of premises put into use. In this year’s June there were only 15.5 thousand such apartments, i.e. 6 percent. more than a month earlier and 5 percent Less in the year -on -year account. In turn, the result from the beginning of the year, in the order of 92 thousand. placed premises, there are over 3 percent worse than obtained in the same period of last year.

The latest information of the Central Statistical Office about the state of housing in Poland once again presents a definitely pessimistic meaning. As the experts of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal notice, the statistics of started apartments, which in June, continued to move towards their long -term DNA of quotations in June. In turn, the apartments put into use have already reached the bottom, which did not cause statistically significant growth in June.

– At the same time, the statistics of developmental permits are getting less and less, which scrub at the bottom of many years of minima quotations. If they are actually considered a reliable indicator of investment optimism of developers, then it is difficult not to see the moods of housing builders weakening from month to month for sale or rent – indicates Jędrzyński.

As he notes, the deepening regression in both starts, permits and premises put into use indicates a long -unprecedented protection of housing entrepreneurs in a rather uncertain economic environment.

– Its primary effect is the record range of development apartments, which, as a result, lasting the advantage of demand over the demand at the end of the first half of the year exceeded the level of 77 thousand. premises on the 7 largest markets, i.e. nearly a third larger in the year to year. Thus, until the trend of the growing offer of the primary market apartments is reversed, one should not expect the revival of GUS housing statistics-sums up the expert.