Polish housing construction returns to the path of growth. Surprising data

The latest data of the Central Statistical Office (CSO) regarding housing for July and the first seven months of this year show a clear reflection in all key indicators of investor activity. This means inhibiting the medium -term downward trend in the sector and more clear signals of the possible business solstice in the near future.

-Strongly established inheritance trend of CSO statistics of housing construction in July was clearly reversed, which significantly dismissed the growing specter of the risk of refraction of the investment economic situation of the original segment of the native apartment-says Jarosław Jędrzyński, expert on the portal RynekPierwotny.pl.

Clear reflection in housing

As the expert notes, both individual investors and developers contributed to the improvement of data, although the latter to a greater extent.

– The strongest relief of the decreasing tendency became the participation of new development building permits, but the data on the apartments, whose construction began, presented equally optimistic. It seems that the fears of housing builders about the prospects of sales economic development gave way to investment mobilization before the expected autumn increase in the demand of the proprietary market of the primary market – says Jarosław Jędrzyński.

Housing construction – July GUS data

The CSO data shows that in July, the construction of nearly 20 thousand began. apartments – a quarter more than in June and almost as much as a year earlier. Developers started from almost 12 thousand. premises, noting 35 percent Height of month to month.

A clear reflection can also be seen in building permits. In July, over 26,000 were spent decisions – by 40 percent more than a month earlier and only by 2 percent less yaws. In seven months of the year, however, the number of permits dropped to 147.6 thousand, i.e. by 14 percent. rdr.

18 thousand were also handed over. apartments, by 17 percent more than in June and by 4 percent less than a year ago. From January to July there were 110,000 of them, which means a 4 % decrease. rdr.

In housing, it was optimistic

As the expert notes, the latest GUS data presented a definitely optimistic meaning.

– Particular attention is paid to the statistics of started apartments, which in July clearly reacted the downward trend, stopping the dangerous traffic towards the long -term DNA of the listing – notes Jarosław Jędrzyński and indicates the statistics of development permits for building permits, which after the period of testing of the DNA of many years of minima in July definitely reflected from him.

In his opinion, this can be considered a reliable signal to the sudden increase in investment optimism of developers.

– The regression, repressed in July in both starts, permits and premises put into use, indicates a change in the attitude of housing entrepreneurs in an uncertain economic environment – he emphasizes.

Expert: “Such a situation will not last forever”

In the expert’s opinion, this change is the result of the first symptoms of reviving the proprietary market demand after two decreases in interest rates and the expected third, perhaps next month.

– After the decrease in the sales volume of development apartments in June, July brought a clear relaxation in most of the main metropolises of the country. According to Big Data RynekPierwotny.pl, in Warsaw, Krakow, Wrocław, Tri-City, Łódź, Poznań and the cities of Upper Silesia-Zagłębie Metropolis, developers found in July willing in July over more than 4.1 thousand. apartments, i.e. by 8 percent more than in June. This is the result of improving the availability of housing loans – says Jędrzyński.

As he emphasizes, July was the first month in which in any of the largest metropolises the average price of a square meter of apartments offered by developers increased, and in Warsaw, the Tri -City and Łódź even fallen slightly.

– With a historically record -breaking offer of the primary market, this creates optimal conditions for those seeking housing, especially in rate negotiations. This situation will not last indefinitely, especially in the perspective of the expected autumn acceleration of sales. Therefore, subsequent GUS data can maintain an optimistic tone – sums up the expert.