Poles say “no” to conscripts. The new survey reverses the trend
A new IBRiS poll for “Rzeczpospolita” shows a decline in support for conscription. Opponents of compulsory service already have the advantage.
The latest IBRiS study for “Rzeczpospolita” confirms a clear change in moods around the possible restoration of compulsory military service. Although state security remains important to Poles, support for such a radical solution is clearly weakening. Currently, 39.2 percent support the return of conscription. respondents, 45.5% are against and 15.3% no opinion. This is the first result in a long time in which opponents predominate, while half a year ago supporters constituted over half of the respondents.
Generational differences
The survey also reveals clear generational and environmental differences. Supporters of compulsory military service are primarily older people: in the 70+ group, support reaches 59%. Residents of small villages (42%) and voters of the current government also say “yes” more often. It is also characteristic that conscription supporters most often get their information from Polsat’s “Events” and place their political views on the side of the left.
On the opposite side there are groups that could be directly affected by the potential obligation. Opposition dominates among women (49%) and younger age groups: both thirty-year-olds (59%) and representatives of Generation Z (58%). The majority of residents of large cities (54%) and people with higher education (52%) are also against it. Respondents from this group most often use TVP Info news channels and declare centrist political views.
Polarization is growing
The research results indicate that the debate on the defense model will have to take into account the growing polarization of attitudes and fatigue with the topic of forced service. Decreasing support for conscription, while maintaining the high importance of security, sends a clear signal to those in power: solutions are needed that better meet the expectations of various social groups.
In practice, this means the need to precisely weigh arguments and conduct a conversation about defense based on the current mood, which – as the survey shows – has changed significantly in recent months.
