NATO without the USA? Could Europe cope with Russia? The comparison results are surprising
If the United States decided to withdraw from NATO, the burden of collective border defense would fall on the shoulders of the remaining allies. Would Europe and other Member States be able to meet this challenge? The comparison of the military resources of NATO (excluding the USA) and Russia, which is currently its main military opponent, may be surprising
We are just a few weeks away from Donald Trump taking office again as US president. His re-election may cause confusion in the North Atlantic Alliance. The American president-elect has repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with the insufficient defense spending of European NATO members.
This attitude raises questions about the future of the organization and Europe’s readiness to face Russia if the US involvement in the alliance structures decreases.
The issue of defense spending in NATO
Already during his first term, Donald Trump criticized NATO members for failing to meet their financial obligations. According to the decisions of the NATO summit in Wales in 2014, each member of the alliance pledged to spend at least 2% of GDP on defense. However, according to data from 2023, only 11 of 30 NATO countries have achieved this level. Moreover, the countries that do not meet this criterion include such economic powerhouses as Germany, France and Italy.
Trump has already indicated that Europe should take more care of its own security. Reducing American involvement in NATO could force European countries to increase defense spending and assess their own military potential in the context of a possible confrontation with Russia.
Comparison of the military potential of NATO and Russia
Number of armed forces
According to website data Global FirepowerRussia currently has 1.3 million active military personnel and 2 million reservists. At first glance, these numbers are impressive, but comparing them with the potential of European countries in NATO allows us to look at this issue differently.
The ten largest European alliance countries have a total of approximately 1.5 million active military personnel – and this is without taking into account the other 20 NATO members.
Soldiers’ experience and training are also crucial. The war in Ukraine exposed deficiencies in Russian training, although at the same time many soldiers gained valuable combat experience. However, Russia’s way of conducting the war – often treating its soldiers as “cannon fodder” – undermines the value of this experience.
Armored forces
In terms of the number of tanks, Russia seems to have the advantage, having as many as 14,700. units. However, most of them are outdated designs that would have huge problems against modern NATO machines such as Leopard 2, Challenger 2 Whether Leclerc.
The ten largest NATO countries (excluding the USA) have a total of approximately 2,000. tanks, which are, however, significantly more modern and better equipped, which gives the alliance a technological advantage.
Air Force
NATO’s dominance is most visible in the air. Russia has approximately 4.2 thousand air units, while the ten largest NATO countries (excluding the USA) have a fleet of approximately 6,000. machines. The key difference is technological advancement – fighters F-35 Lightning II, F-16 Whether Eurofighter Typhoon significantly superior to the Russian arsenal.
Although Russia has one in its fleet Su-57their number is only a dozen or so, and the combat capabilities of these machines remain uncertain.
Navy
NATO’s advantage is also clear at sea. Russia has a fleet of less than 300 vessels, while NATO’s ten largest European navies have approximately 1,900. units.
NATO has a special advantage in having aircraft carriers – Europe has 10 of them, including two modern British-type aircraft carriers Queen Elizabeth. Russia, however, does not have active aircraft carriers.
NATO exercises and preparations
In recent years, NATO has been taking steps to strengthen its eastern flank. An example would be exercise Steadfast Defenderwhich took place in 2023.
As many as 90,000 people took part in it. soldiers, making them the largest maneuvers in over three decades. Such exercises strengthen the interoperability of the alliance’s armed forces and send a clear signal to Moscow that NATO is ready to defend its members.
Geopolitical challenges
Although in military terms NATO (without the US) seems capable of effectively facing Russia, the Kremlin’s potential allies should be taken into account. The war in Ukraine has shown that Russia can count on support from countries such as Iran, North Korea and China. In the event of a conflict with NATO, the involvement of these countries could make the situation much more difficult.
