Millions of apartments will change owners. This may upend the Polish real estate market

For the last two decades, the Polish housing market has operated according to a quite simple scenario. Young people started families, took out mortgage loans and bought apartments – first small, then larger. Demand was fueled by rising wages, access to financing and the belief that real estate is one of the best ways to protect capital.

However, this model may slowly become a thing of the past. Not because Poles will suddenly stop needing apartments. The problem is more fundamental: the number of people, their age and the structure of households are changing.

As analysts of the RynekPierwotny.pl website note, there are more and more indications that in the coming years the market may begin to operate according to completely different rules. One of the most important factors may be the largest housing transfer in the modern history of Poland – the gradual transfer of a huge part of the housing stock from the generation of today’s seniors to their children and grandchildren.

In practice, this may mean one of the largest structural changes in the real estate market since the beginning of the political transformation.

Poland is aging faster than most of Europe

Demographic changes are no longer just economists’ forecasts. According to data from the Central Statistical Office, people over 60 years of age now constitute over a quarter of the country’s population, and their share will systematically increase. Poland is one of the fastest aging societies in the European Union.

At the same time, Poland remains a country with one of the highest levels of home ownership in Europe. This means that a huge part of household wealth is in real estate.

This is a fundamental difference compared to many Western European countries, where institutional leasing or municipal resources play a greater role.

In practice, this means that over the next dozen or so to several dozen years, more and more apartments coming from inheritances and property succession may hit the market.

Inheritance may begin to replace a mortgage loan

Until recently, the basic way to enter the housing market was a mortgage loan. Today, however, another scenario appears more and more often – an apartment inherited from parents or grandparents.

– In the coming years, the importance of transferring housing assets between generations may increase significantly. For some younger households, inheriting an apartment may prove to be an easier way to enter the market than purchasing real estate financed with a long-term mortgage loan – comments Jarosław Jędrzyński, expert of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal.

This can have a huge impact on the entire market. On the one hand, some young people will be able to improve their housing situation more quickly without having to go into debt for 25-30 years. On the other hand, the difference between people who inherit real estate and those who will not receive such family support may be widening.

The market may be increasingly divided into those who will get the apartment and those who will still have to buy it.

In 2025, approximately 406,000 people died in Poland. people. This number is almost three times higher than the annual production of developer apartments, which, according to the Central Statistical Office, amounted to approximately 134,000 at the same time. premises.

At the same time, the negative natural increase exceeded 160,000. people. This information is also important from the point of view of the real estate market, because it shows the scale of the housing stock, which in the long term may gradually lose its natural demographic replacement. In other words, the number of people potentially “leaving” the housing market clearly begins to outweigh the number of new market participants entering adulthood and creating new households.

Of course, the death of one person does not automatically mean that one apartment will appear on the market. Some seniors live with their spouse or family, some premises remain off the market for years, and some properties go to their heirs who continue to use them.

Still, the scale of the phenomenon is becoming difficult to ignore. Even if only 20-30 percent deaths actually translated into apartments freed by inheritance, sale or property succession, this would potentially mean approximately 80-120 thousand. premises per year.

This level is increasingly similar to the annual supply of apartments built by developers. In practice, this means that the secondary market may start to grow faster in the coming years, not only thanks to investors or renovations of older premises, but also due to demographics itself.

Will the great album come back into play?

The changes taking place on the secondary market may be the most important. A significant part of the apartments owned by seniors today are located in prefabricated blocks and older buildings from the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. These are often located in well-connected districts of large cities, with developed infrastructure, access to public transport, schools and services.

Just a few years ago, many people assumed that the large slab would gradually lose its importance in favor of new construction. Meanwhile, high prices of developer apartments are starting to increase the attractiveness of some older housing stock again.

If a larger number of inherited apartments in relatively good locations begin to hit the market, the secondary market may become much stronger competition for some of the new investments. However, this does not mean that all locations will defend their value equally well.

The housing market may be increasingly divided into “A” and “B”

Demographics will likely not hit the entire real estate market equally. The largest cities, attractive districts and locations with a strong labor market may continue to maintain relatively stable demand. A much more difficult situation may apply to some smaller cities and weaker locations, which are already facing the outflow of inhabitants and the aging of the population.

In such places, the increased supply of inherited apartments may put additional pressure on prices in the future. This means that the real estate market may be increasingly divided into segments:

• locations that attract residents and capital,

• places gradually losing their demographic and economic importance.

Not all heirs will want to live in the inherited premises

Contrary to appearances, a large number of apartments going to heirs does not necessarily mean an automatic reduction in demand for new apartments.

Some of the inherited premises will require expensive renovations or modernization. Others may be in locations that are not suited to the needs of younger generations. Therefore, some heirs may decide to:

• sale of an apartment,

• rent,

• exchange for a new premises of a higher standard.

This may further increase turnover on the secondary market.

Developers will have to compete not only on price

The growing number of apartments available on the secondary market may also mean a change in the strategy of some developers. Competing solely on price may prove increasingly difficult. The following may become much more important:

• design quality,

• energy efficiency,

• common parts,

• location,

• smart home,

• additional services,

• broadly understood comfort of life.

In practice, developers may be increasingly forced to offer apartments that are clearly better than older apartments coming to the market from inheritance.

Demographics may change the market more than subsidy programs

In recent years, the discussion about the housing market has focused mainly on interest rates, creditworthiness and borrower support programs.

Meanwhile, in the longer term, demography and the transfer of wealth between generations may prove to be factors that significantly change the market structure.

Because perhaps the biggest challenge of the next decades will no longer be the question: “who will buy the apartment?”, but: “what will happen to the millions of apartments that already exist?” – summarizes Jarosław Jędrzyński.

Jarosław Jędrzyński, expert of the RynekPierwotny.pl portal