July can be a breakthrough for interest rates. Experts have no doubt

The Monetary Policy Council (RPP) has made a key decision today regarding the amount of interest rates. After a two -day meeting of the MPP, she decided to maintain them at the current level.

“The Council decided to maintain the NBP interest rates at an unchanged level,” informs the MPC in the announcement.

According to experts, it is a signal of caution and reaction to the still uncertain inflationary environment. The economists of the largest banks comment on social media and indicate when we can expect the first discounts. July appears among the forecasts, but there are also more cautious scenarios.

ING: “By the end of the year, foot reduction by 75 PB”

Economists from ING assume that after maintaining interest rates in June, the MPC will decide on the first reduction in July, when consumer inflation reaches the level close to the NBP inflationary.

“The MPC feet without changes. After a pause in June, we expect a reduction in the monetary policy soothing cycle in July, when the CPI inflation falls close to the NBP target. Until the end of the year, the rate reduction by 75 pb. The market is sensitive to the conference of A. Glapiński’s conference in the new environment,” writes ING Economics Poland in today’s post on the platform X.

PKO Bank Polski: “Resumption of reductions at the earliest in July”

Economists and analysts of PKO Bank Polski, remind you of earlier signals from the MPC, indicating that we can expect reductions at the earliest in July.

“The MPC left interest rates unchanged, with a reference equal to 5.25 percent. MEP members suggested that after the May adaptation, the time would come to think, and the resumption of reductions could take place at the earliest in July,” reads a post on Platform X.

mBank: “It’s hard to find changes except adapting to reality”

“No surprise – the council kept all the feet unchanged,” says in the post posted on the platform X mBank Research.

As analysts notice, it is difficult to talk about new products – the message only keeps up with reality.

“In a communiqué, it is difficult to find changes except for adapting to reality. The Council records data on GDP for Q1, as well as a lower increase in wages in GN. In the aspect of wages, the fragment has disappeared that the annual dynamics is still at a high level” – they indicate in the commentary on X.

Economists of mBank also show differences in the MPC messages – analyzing point by point. The changes in the content are cosmetic and rather reflect the current situation than signal a new direction. For the market – it is a signal of stabilization, not a return.