Is this the last time to buy an apartment? Economist: “I wouldn’t expect large price drops”

Just a few months ago, many buyers expected that apartment prices would start to drop dramatically. Today, however, there is more and more evidence that the market is slowly returning to balance. Loans are starting to become cheaper, developers are planning new investments more carefully, and buyers – although still cautious – are returning to talks about purchasing apartments. Does this mean the end of the correction? Marek Zuber argues that the potential for further large reductions is already limited, and in the long run, apartments may still remain one of the safest forms of capital protection.

Mission Mieszkanie is a project implemented by RynekPierwotny.pl, devoted to the real estate market, financing the purchase of apartments and changes affecting the way we live and invest today. In conversations with experts, both economic data and social processes shaping Polish cities are analyzed.

The economy does not like chaos

Marek Zuber leaves no doubt: wars and armed conflicts are destructive phenomena for the economy. Although the thesis that war can drive economic development returns regularly, the economist emphasizes that the benefits usually accrue only to selected sectors and specific countries.

– “A situation where there are no wars is a much better situation than an ongoing war,” says Zuber.

In his opinion, conflicts primarily mean an increase in state debt, destabilization of raw material markets and growing investor uncertainty. Of course, countries affected by war suffer the most, but the effects are felt all over the world – from transport to energy prices and production costs.

At the same time, the expert cools down the catastrophic mood related to the impact of current conflicts on Europe. According to him, market reactions are often exaggerated and further fueled by speculation.

Fear has become fuel for the markets

This was particularly clear in the tensions surrounding Iran and Qatar. According to Zuber, the sharp increases in gas prices did not have full economic justification.

– “What reasons do you have for the price of gas to increase by 100% within hours because Qatar has partially reduced production?” – he asks rhetorically.

The economist explains that markets react very quickly to fear and risk, even if the real threat to raw material supplies remains limited. In his opinion, some of such price movements are consciously amplified by speculators taking advantage of the atmosphere of uncertainty.

This mechanism is also well known from the real estate market. In recent years, apartment prices have been rising not only because of inflation and the rising prices of building materials, but also because purchasing a apartment has begun to be perceived as a safe form of investing capital.

Housing prices have already fallen, but the market does not look collapsed

The most important part of the conversation concerned, of course, apartment prices and forecasts for the coming months. According to Marek Zuber, the biggest corrections are probably behind us.

The economist estimates that since the peaks of about a year and a half ago, real transaction prices in Warsaw and Krakow have fallen on average by about 15%. However, this was not always visible in developers’ official price lists.

– “I think that we no longer have the potential for any more serious declines in 2026,” he says.

Discounts more often took the form of rebates, free parking spaces or additional bonuses than official housing discounts.

Zuber cites the example of a friend who decided not to buy a flat despite having previously prepared to sign the notarial deed. A few months later, the developer came back with a clearly better offer.

– “The price in the folder did not drop, but there was an 11% discount and two parking spaces,” says the economist.

In his opinion, the market is no longer one-sided. Until recently, sellers dictated the terms, but today clients negotiate more effectively and analyze the quality of the investment in more detail.

Construction costs remain high

Despite the price correction, experts do not expect a sudden market collapse. One of the reasons is high construction costs.

As Zuber emphasizes, the cost of apartment construction by large contractors today averages between PLN 5,000 and PLN 6,500. PLN per square meter – without the cost of the plot. Just a dozen or so years ago, building under 3,000 PLN per meter was nothing special.

The greatest increase in labor costs is that of a permanent nature and is unlikely to return to the levels from a decade ago. More and more expensive plots in the largest cities are also becoming a problem.

– “The biggest problem is the increasing lack of sensible investment areas in city centers,” notes the economist.

This is particularly visible today in Krakow, where the availability of attractive land is becoming more and more limited.

Buyers pay attention not only to price

The change in the market situation also affects the way housing investments are designed. During the boom, many apartments were sold practically before construction began. Today, clients analyze the design standard, apartment layout, access to greenery, communication and services much more carefully.

The quality of architecture and urban planning is becoming more and more important. Developers must compete not only on price, but also on the functionality of the investment and the quality of life of residents.

In practice, this means greater interest in housing estates that are well integrated into the city’s fabric, offering access to public transport, recreational areas and services within walking distance.

Poland may enter a period of strong growth

Despite global tensions, Marek Zuber paints a relatively optimistic scenario for the Polish economy. In his opinion, the coming years may bring very large investments related to energy, railways, defense and infrastructure.

– “If we play it right, we will have a very decent decade of growth ahead of us,” says the economist.

A growing economy would mean greater purchasing power of Poles, easier access to loans and a gradual return of demand for apartments. Expected interest rate cuts may prove particularly important.

According to Zuber, these factors may make 2026 the moment of renewed revival of the real estate market.

Demographics remain the biggest challenge

The most disturbing part of the conversation, however, is the demographics. The number of births in Poland dropped to approximately 250,000 last year, which is one of the worst results in the country’s modern history.

In the long term, this may mean a weakening of the real estate market. However, Zuber believes that many analyzes ignore an important factor: migration.

– “If we do not start accepting more immigrants to Poland, we will stop growing in four or five years,” he warns.

In his opinion, Poland will have to open up to the inflow of new workers and residents from abroad if it wants to maintain the pace of economic development.

This means that the future of the housing market will depend not only on the number of children born, but also on whether Poland will become an attractive place to live for new residents.

The real estate market is maturing

What emerges from the entire conversation is a picture of a market that is gradually maturing after years of very dynamic growth. Apartments still remain an important investment asset, but purchasing decisions are less and less often driven solely by fear of further price increases.

Location, design quality, access to infrastructure and comfort of everyday life play an increasingly important role. This is a process typical of more developed European markets, where the value of real estate is built primarily through the quality of urban space.

In this sense, the current stabilization may prove to be a necessary stage of maturation for the Polish market – not the end of investing in apartments, but the beginning of a more conscious approach to real estate as a place to live, and not just a quick way to invest capital.