Is there a spring gift coming for borrowers? Experts have no doubts

A two-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) began on Tuesday. This afternoon we will know the decision on the interest rates. Let us remind you that a month ago – just like in January – the committee decided to leave them at the current level. Therefore, the main reference rate is 4%. on an annual basis.

Will the Monetary Policy Council lower interest rates today?

What decision can we expect today? ING Bank Śląski economist Adam Antoniak expects that the Monetary Policy Council will reduce interest rates after a two-month break. In his opinion, however, the cuts will not be too great, they may amount to 25 basis points.

In a comment for PAP, Antoniak reminds that the Monetary Policy Council will already have a new March inflation projection. A projection is a forecast of inflation and GDP, constructed assuming that interest rates will not change.

– The March inflation projection should confirm that the decline in inflation in recent months is broad-based and lasting. A further deceleration in the pace of wage growth in January suggests that their acceleration at the end of 2025 was temporary – related to awards and annual bonuses – and the downward trend continues. January’s construction and industry data were also worse than expected, which suggests some weakening of economic activity in the first quarter of 2026. – said an economist from ING Bank Śląski.

Antoniak admits that the conflict in the Middle East, which began with Saturday’s attack by the US and Israel on Iran, is a new risk factor. It may affect the outlook for inflation and the economic situation.

The expert emphasizes that he sees what is happening in the Middle East as a risk factor for further easing of monetary policy. In his opinion, the decision on a possible reduction may be accompanied by a “relatively hawkish statement after the meeting” as well as a cautious approach to further cuts in interest rates.

Let us recall that the president of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) and the chairman of the Monetary Policy Council, Adam Glapiński, said a month ago that “if the projection does not show anything disturbing and there are no external events, a reduction in interest rates is possible in March.” Possible cuts are good news for borrowers, as the reduction in rates is associated with a decrease in mortgage or company loan installments.